The Khashoggi plot thickened on October 24 as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told a business forum in Riyadh: “A lot of people are trying to seize this painful situation to create a rift between Saudi Arabia and Turkey. And I want to send them a message: you will never be able to do that.”

The remark will have struck a bum note with any analyst worth his salt on relations between the Saudis and Turks as it is well known that there is little love lost between the two Middle East power brokers when it comes to a whole range of regional affairs, including the role of political Islam in Egypt, the conflict in Syria, the Saudi-led blockading of Qatar and the Saudi-backed US attempt to isolate Iran. There has been some particularly bad blood between Bin Salman and Erdogan over the latter’s backing for the Egypt-founded Muslim Brotherhood, so analysts were once more returning to the question of what incontrovertible evidence Erdogan might possess over the roles of Saudi officials in the brutal murder of Riyadh critic and journalist Khashoggi in Saudi Arabia’s Istanbul consulate on October 2.

At the business forum, named the Future Investment Initiative but dubbed “Davos in the desert” and carrying greatly reduced allure since it was boycotted by major powers and many big corporates after the Khashoggi scandal erupted, 33-year-old Bin Salman, seen as the de facto ruler of the Saudi kingdom, vowed to punish all the “culprits” responsible for the “heinous crime” of murdering the self-exiled journalist.

The Saudis are now portraying the murder as the result of a “rogue operation” but the difficulty for Bin Salman is that, if the evidence Turkey says it has gathered stands up, it appears to have been committed by the so-called “Tiger Squad” (Firqat el-Nemr) of elite Saudi operatives—and they answer to the crown prince.

“Blood on his hands”
The pressure on Bin Salman mounted on October 24 as a top aide to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the crown prince has “blood on his hands” in the premeditated killing of critic Khashoggi.

Ilnur Cevik added: “It is a futile gesture trying to distance the crown prince from the monstrous atrocity that has been committed by the Saudis. US President Donald Trump may try to stand up for MBS [as Bin Salman is known] so Washington can use him for its plans against Iran; however, from now on, wherever the crown prince goes, he will be regarded as the man with Khashoggi’s blood on his hands.”

On October 23, there were expectations that Erdogan would outline evidence to lawmakers in Turkey’s parliament on who was ultimately responsible for allegedly ordering the hit squad to carry out the assassination. But his speech turned out to be a damp squib. If he is in possession of such evidence—and there are media reports that Turkish intelligence officials were able to intercept Skype voice calls between the Tiger Squad in the Istanbul consulate and Riyadh that took place just prior to the grisly murder of Khashoggi—then he chose to keep it under wraps.

“Intelligence and security institutions have evidence showing the murder was planned… Pinning such a case on a handful of security and intelligence members will not satisfy us or the international community,” Erdogan said in his speech, during which he made no reference to the crown prince. “From the person who gave the order, to the person who carried it out, they must all be brought to account,” he added.

Erdogan and MBS speak
On October 24, Erdogan spoke with Bin Salman after a demand to talk from the latter, according to statement from Erdogan’s office. The discussion was said to have focused on shedding light on the killing of Khashoggi and steps that should now be taken.

Until Erdogan either gets what he is after from the Saudis, or reveals just how much he can prove on who killed Khashoggi and on who gave the order, the extent of his leverage over Bin Salman—and over the Trump administration which is under severe pressure over the behaviour of its key ally in the Persian Gulf—will not become clear.

How far Erdogan might be able to use the affair to change the balance of power in the Middle East is the big question, or might he be content to simply secure some financial aid to help Turkey out of its currently dire financial straits?

“I wonder if we will see Saudi matching the USD15bn financing package given by Qatar,” BlueBay Asset Management economist Timothy Ash remarked wryly in a note to investors.