Eastern Europe / Opinion
COMMENT: Armenia's decisive turn towards the West
There’s a high probability that a new geopolitical balance can be established in the South Caucasus where Russia will finally be absent.
BOFIT: Russia’s overall economic performance steady in February; construction investment has supported wartime growth
The central factor supporting Russian economic growth last year was the sharp increase in fixed capital investment. Increased budget spending was also used to finance investments.
PANNIER: Caspian military drills that exclude Russia and Iran have some people in Moscow asking questions
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan going ahead with “Birlestik-2024”. Russian consternation is growing.
COMMENT: The Three Seas Initiative's digital imperative
While digital infrastructure in the region is growing, support infrastructure designed to handle the growth in demand is what requires investment.
CENUSA: Geopolitics prevails in the EU accession agenda for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova
The destabilisation of Eastern Europe created a paradigm shift in terms of EU enlargement.
BOFIT: Forecast for Russia sees lower economic growth ahead
In the March update of BOFIT"s Forecast for Russia 2024-2026 capacity constraints will become a major cause of Russia’s economic slowdown this year.
COMMENT: Overheating in Russia and Turkey, but CEE recovering
The economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which experienced a period of stagnation last year, are poised for a modest revival in 2024, but both the Russian and Turkish economies are already overheating.
UBN: Russia could take the Baltic states in 48 hours
Russian forces must only make an offensive push for 250km to cut the Baltic states from Europe.
COMMENT: Rising tension between France and Azerbaijan is a drag on peace process with Armenia
France is taking independent steps regarding the South Caucasus, as French President Emmanuel Macron attempts to bolster his role as a top European leader.
CENUSA: Europe needs to reduce the risks of destabilisation in its eastern neighbourhood
Candidate states for EU accession such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia remain in a zone of insecurity where Russia can intervene minimally in a hybrid way.
Two years later: addressing long-term consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – Bruegel discussion
Sanctions on Russia have had mixed results after two years of war, inflicting real pain on the Russian economy, but the lack of effective enforcement has muted their effect, a panel organised by Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel.
KSE: Ukraine’s state debt review 2023
In 2023, the combined state debt and state-guaranteed debt increased by 30.4% to $145.3bn, representing 85% of the estimated GDP (up from 49% in 2021 and 77.8% in 2022).
Two ways of fighting Putin: Navalny vs Maidan
February is the new August in Russia. Ever since the 1991 coup that ended Soviet communism August was reputed to be the month of black swans that changed the course of Russian history.
KABANOVSKY: Cynicism is Russia's Achilles’ Heel
Watching Yulia Navalnaya's stoic declaration to carry on her husband's battle against Putin and his regime, I found myself wrestling with scepticism, not about Yulia's intentions or her undeniable bravery, but about the broader context she is in.
Balkans a prime target for Russia's unconventional warfare tactics
Moldova and Montenegro already targets of Russian destabilisation efforts, says RUSI report.
KABANOVSKY: Has Putin created a martyr?
It is a sad day for anyone interested in Russia and the former Soviet Union. Alexey Navalny, for all his flaws, represented a brave, unyielding voice in the wilderness refusing to succumb to fear of a merciless regime.
McFAUL: Trump does not understand or value Nato and that’s very dangerous
I cannot recall another instance in history when a US president invited an enemy to attack our allies. Imagine how those comments sound in Lithuania, Estonia, or Poland.
KSE: Just under 10% of foreign companies working in Russia have left, more than half are staying
As of February 4, 2024, 356 international companies (9.6% of the total number of entries in the KSE database, or 27.8% of the companies that generated revenue in Russia in 2022) have entirely ceased operations in Russia.
PANNIER: Response to Bishkek thermal power plant explosion lifts lid on Central Asia relations
And what’s seen is quite encouraging.
CENUSA: EU faces consequences of geopolitical crises as Eastern Europe enters complex political-electoral phase
Eurosceptics' ability to exploit protests will test the EU's potential to influence its Eastern Neighbourhood. At the same time, electoral cycles in Eastern Europe favour the consolidation and perpetuation of autocracies.