In the March 3 vote, Estonia is just about to experience what other EU member states have in the past few years. 

The result of the election could bring about a challenge to the political status quo by a far-right, nationalist party that is less than enthusiastic about the Baltic state’s membership in the EU, so far the cornerstone of Estonian politics.

In fact, the voting for EKRE, the Estonian acronym for Estonian Conservative People’s Party, may well have begun, as the tech-savvy nation opened online voting early ahead of the main vote. Some 26% of the country’s nearly one million eligible voters have been reported to cast their ballots by February 27, the deadline for e-voting.

EKRE’s rise has been significant to around 17% in recent polls but – barring any unforeseeable shocks – the vote is still expected to affirm the political position of two leading mainstream parties, the liberal Eesti Reformierakond (Reform Party) and the centre-left Keskerakond (Centre Party). 

Whichever party emerges as winner, it will likely form a coalition with at least one of the smaller parties, presumably the SDE (Social Democrats) or the conservative Isamaa (Fatherland). The two latter are the Centre Party’s current government coalition partners.

It is also possible – albeit remotely – that the Centre and Reform might strike a coalition deal between themselves although that will depend on how EKRE performs and if there emerges a necessity to strengthen the cordon sanitaire around this party.

That the Centre Party is in power at all is an effect of an earlier tectonic shift in Estonian politics. In 2016, a Reform-led coalition broke up and the coalition’s junior member, the Social Democrats, formed a new government with the Centre Party, so far isolated from power because its voter base is Estonian Russians, who make 25% of the population.

Since then, however, the Centre Party has managed to shed – to an extent - the politically troublesome image of having too many strong ties to Russia and reinstated its political relevance.

Russia, of course, is still going to loom large in the election. Estonia is a frontline Nato member and Russia has never ceased keeping a close – some say too close – watch over the Baltic state, a former Soviet republic that regained independence in 1991. There is an underlying tension in Estonia because of the quarter of its population being Russians.

Estonia, like its Baltic neighbours Latvia and Lithuania, is especially wary of Russia after Moscow annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. There is a concern in Tallinn that the Baltic states might be the next to face Russia’s reinvigorated geopolitical ambitions.

The two main parties sparred in the run-up to the March 3 vote over the further direction the country’s policies – such as taxation, education, or health care - should take and what to do to with the structural lack of workers.
 
The country’s labour market has tightened in effect of mass emigration to Finland and the UK. The third mainstream party, the Social Democrats are looking to become a coalition partner to either of the big groups and soften their policies.

EKRE’s platform is to undermine the status quo, which – the party claims – is mainstream’s complacency with the EU, which the far-right populist say should give member states more independence. 

EKRE has also tried to score points by exploiting the scandal at the Estonian branch of Danske Bank, which is under investigation in Estonia, Denmark and other countries for funnelling some €200bn in payments, many of them suspected of being money laundering operations.

As for Estonia’s place in the EU and Nato, EKRE is an outlier, as all mainstream parties are in agreement that the membership in the bloc and in the US-led defence pact is fundamental for the country’s future. Estonia is one of the few Nato member states that spend on defence 2% of its GDP, long before US President Donald Trump made it a point in his transatlantic policy.

Centre Party is currently polling at around 28%, ahead of the Reform Party at about 27%, with the difference so minimal the final outcome of the vote could easily swing either way. EKRE is at about 17%, well ahead of Social Democrats and Fatherland who are both at around 9%-10%.