When German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrives in Azerbaijan on August 25, with the frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia somewhere near the top of her agenda, she will find herself in a country that has been arming itself to the teeth.

German news agency dpa reported on August 23 that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev likes to point out that since 2003 his hydrocarbon-rich country’s military spending has grown 15-fold. It cited figures from German political think-tank Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) showing the expenditure amounted to almost $2bn in 2015, though it had fallen to around $1.5bn by 2017 as Baku’s budget was squeezed by lower oil prices.

By comparison, impoverished Armenia spent only $437mn on its military in 2017, but that’s nevertheless a substantial sum for a country with a population of 2.9mn, in contrast to Azerbaijan’s 9.9mn.

Merkel is to visit Armenia on August 24, the day before she is due in Azerbaijan. The first stop on her tour of the South Caucasus was Georgia, on August 23.

Armenia and Azerbaijan waged a bloody war over Nagorno-Karabakh from 1992 to 1994. Since then, there have been sporadic flare-ups, but the conflict is generally frozen. The breakaway territory is internationally recognised as Azerbaijani, but it is controlled by pro-Armenian forces.

The military build-up that has been seen on both sides since the war ended has been assisted by Russia, which sells arms to both Baku and Yerevan. At the same time, Moscow essentially chairs attempts at making headway with a peace process.

It is unclear how extensively Merkel will approach the Nagorno-Karabakh issue in her talks with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In talks with both Azerbaijan and Georgia, the issue of securing gas supplies for Europe that will be carried by pipelines laid along the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is one clear priority for Berlin.