The US could beat Russia's oil exports numbers by 2024 and become the world's second largest exporter of oil behind the Saudi Arabia, the report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts.
"The United States continues to dominate supply growth in the medium term. Following the unprecedented expansion seen in 2018, when total liquids production increased by a record 2.2mn barrels per day (mb/d), the United States will account for 70% of the increase in global production capacity until 2024, adding a total of 4mb/d," the report reads.
As a result, the US will become a net oil exporter in 2021, with exports reaching 9mb/d, overtaking Russia and catching up on Saudi Arabia, the IEA believes, noting that "the transformation of the United States into a major exporter is another consequence of its shale revolution."
Another emerging global oil players are Brazil, seen shipping an extra 0.8mb/d of oil by 2024, and Norway, which is seen overtaking Kazakhstan and Kuwait in the next five years in terms of oil exports.
In the meantime, the upstream segment will see major changes as well. The refining industry is facing a wave of new capacity additions in the period to 2024, with a net growth of about 9mb/d, the IEA believes. China will overtake the United States to become the global leader in installed refining capacity.
"Given that these new additions far exceed the increase in demand for refined products, plant closures might be necessary to rebalance the market, though questions remain as to where and when that will happen," the agency warns.