Eastern Europe / Data
Russian population's inflation expectations drop six points to 12.5% as economic crisis fears fade
The inflation expectations of the Russian population fell 6pp in March to 12.5%, as consumers feel the relief of the rapid stabilisation of the economy thanks to the fast action of the Central Bank of Russia.
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Russia’s CBR reserves down $43.7bn since the start of the war
Russia’s gross international reserves (GIR) held by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) have fallen from $629.4bn on February 25 to $585.7bn as of May 13, a fall of $43.7bn according to the latest data released by the regulator.
Russians trade TV news for social media as war-weariness sets in
Trust in TV news is declining among Russians, as social media news gains popularity. At the same time, Russian support for the war in Ukraine appears to be slipping, as does the belief that Russia is winning a global power struggle.
EBRD expects 30% GDP contraction in Ukraine in 2022, lowers emerging Europe projections
The EBRD has cut its 2022 emerging Europe growth forecasts again, reflecting a sharp downgrade for Ukraine and the regional fallout from the war and sanctions.
Russia’s manufacturing PMI improves in April, but still contracting
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Russia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted 48.2 in April, up from 44.1 in March, to signal the third successive deterioration in the health of the Russian manufacturing sector.
Russia’s CBR cuts key rate from 17% to 14%
The board of the Central Bank of Russia cut the key monetary policy interest rate from 17% to 14% at the policy meeting of April 29 – the second cut in a month as inflationary pressure rapidly recedes.
IMF cuts Russia’s growth outlook to -8.5% in 2022, but warns figure could double if energy is sanctioned
The International Monetary Fund estimates that Russia’s economy will shrink by 8.5% this year and Ukraine’s could collapse by 35% as a result of the war between the two that broke out at the end of February.
Ukraine’s economy to contract by 35% in 2022 – IIF
Ukraine’s economy will contract by 35% this year as a result of the war with Russia, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in a note released on April 13.
Russia’s economy to shrink by 11.2%, Ukraine’s by 45%, says World Bank
Russia’s economy will contract by 11.2% in 2022 and Ukraine’s by 45%, according to a new forecast released by the World Bank on April 10.
Russia’s CBR chief Nabilullina soft-lands ruble and cuts key rate to 17%
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) made a surprise key interest rate cut from 20% to 17% on April 8 although the policy board meeting was not scheduled until April 29, as the regulator soft-landed Russian ruble to the levels at which it traded prior to
Russian car sales down 43% in March
Sales of passenger cars crashed by 43% year on year to 78,900 units, marking a record-high monthly drop and the steepest since 2007.
Russia services and composite PMI sees fastest fall in business activity since May 2020
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Russia Services PMI Business Activity Index plummeted to 38.1 in March, down from 52.1 in February – the biggest fall since the PMI index crashed at the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Russian manufacturing PMI plummets in post-invasion March
The Russian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) sharply deteriorated in March 2022, with the rate of decline after the military invasion of Ukraine accelerating to its fastest since the early stages of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Russian poll suggests growing support for government during war
New data from pollster Levada Centre show that domestic support for the Russian government has increased across a range of metrics since its invasion of Ukraine in February. Trust in the president is up 10%, according to the Levada Centre.
Ruble firms to the dollar, but the exchange rates are not real
The Russian ruble surged by more than 10% on March 29 in Moscow trading, following peace talks in Istanbul, but the rates are not real, say analysts.
Russian unemployment could rise to 7.8% this year on sanctions shock and deep recession
Russian could lose about 2mn jobs, causing unemployment to rise from 4.4% to 7.1-7.8% by the end of this year, Kommersant reported on March 29, citing analyst forecasts described in a report by the Center for Strategic Developments (CSR).
The EC Economic Sentiment Index tumbles in March and price rise expectations hit record levels
European economic sentiment took a hit in March, falling in seven of the ten most important economies, as the war in Ukraine and the economic impact of extreme sanctions on Russia drive up inflation and disrupt supply chains.
Russians expect Western businesses to return
Despite the unprecedented exodus of foreign businesses from Russia, over 40% of Russians believe that most Western companies that left the country will return within a year.
Putin popularity rose to 71% in February as tensions with West over Ukraine built up
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s personal popularity was boosted by the rising tensions with the West to its highest level since May 2018, according to independent pollster the Levada Center.
Moscow Exchange due to reopen as CBR attempts to soft-land Russian stock market
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will allow the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) to reopen on March 24 with trade limited to the largest 33 stocks and a ban on short selling as the regulator attempts to engineer a soft landing for the crashing market.
