Eastern Europe / Data

IMF cuts Russia’s growth outlook to -8.5% in 2022, but warns figure could double if energy is sanctioned

bne IntelliNews April 20, 2022

The International Monetary Fund estimates that Russia’s economy will shrink by 8.5% this year and Ukraine’s could collapse by 35% as a result of the war between the two that broke out at the end of February.

Ukraine’s economy to contract by 35% in 2022 – IIF

bne IntelliNews April 15, 2022

Ukraine’s economy will contract by 35% this year as a result of the war with Russia, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in a note released on April 13.

Russia’s economy to shrink by 11.2%, Ukraine’s by 45%, says World Bank

bne IntelliNews April 11, 2022

Russia’s economy will contract by 11.2% in 2022 and Ukraine’s by 45%, according to a new forecast released by the World Bank on April 10.

Russia’s CBR chief Nabilullina soft-lands ruble and cuts key rate to 17%

bne IntelliNews April 8, 2022

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) made a surprise key interest rate cut from 20% to 17% on April 8 although the policy board meeting was not scheduled until April 29, as the regulator soft-landed Russian ruble to the levels at which it traded prior to

Russian car sales down 43% in March

bne IntelliNews April 6, 2022

Sales of passenger cars crashed by 43% year on year to 78,900 units, marking a record-high monthly drop and the steepest since 2007.

Russia services and composite PMI sees fastest fall in business activity since May 2020

bne IntelliNews April 5, 2022

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Russia Services PMI Business Activity Index plummeted to 38.1 in March, down from 52.1 in February – the biggest fall since the PMI index crashed at the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Russian manufacturing PMI plummets in post-invasion March

bne IntelliNews April 3, 2022

The Russian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) sharply deteriorated in March 2022, with the rate of decline after the military invasion of Ukraine accelerating to its fastest since the early stages of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

Russian poll suggests growing support for government during war

Theo Normanton March 31, 2022

New data from pollster Levada Centre show that domestic support for the Russian government has increased across a range of metrics since its invasion of Ukraine in February. Trust in the president is up 10%, according to the Levada Centre.

Ruble firms to the dollar, but the exchange rates are not real

bne IntelliNews March 31, 2022

The Russian ruble surged by more than 10% on March 29 in Moscow trading, following peace talks in Istanbul, but the rates are not real, say analysts.

Russian unemployment could rise to 7.8% this year on sanctions shock and deep recession

bne IntelliNews March 30, 2022

Russian could lose about 2mn jobs, causing unemployment to rise from 4.4% to 7.1-7.8% by the end of this year, Kommersant reported on March 29, citing analyst forecasts described in a report by the Center for Strategic Developments (CSR).

The EC Economic Sentiment Index tumbles in March and price rise expectations hit record levels

bne IntelliNews March 30, 2022

European economic sentiment took a hit in March, falling in seven of the ten most important economies, as the war in Ukraine and the economic impact of extreme sanctions on Russia drive up inflation and disrupt supply chains.

Russians expect Western businesses to return

bne IntelliNews March 30, 2022

Despite the unprecedented exodus of foreign businesses from Russia, over 40% of Russians believe that most Western companies that left the country will return within a year.