Eastern Europe / Opinion

ICU: Ukraine’s economy becoming more resilient, but needs helping hand

Vitaliy Vavryshchuk of ICU in Kyiv December 1, 2023

Despite the significant headwinds Ukraine has faced in 2023, economic activity is surprising to the upside. Real GDP will be up more than 5% in 2023, inflation has plummeted to single digits, and NBU reserves hit historical highs.

COMMENT: Falling EM inflation enters a second phase, but rate cuts will progress slowly in 2024

bne IntelliNews November 28, 2023

Inflation rates are coming down across the Emerging Markets and are now entering a second phase, Capital Economics said in a note on November 28. Central Banks are getting ready to cut interest rates but rate cuts will come slowly.

BOFIT: The Russian financial market is looking for a new balance

Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) November 24, 2023

The economic sanctions imposed as a result of the war of aggression started by Russia in March 2022 have changed the Russian financial market in many ways. Now foreign investors are leaving.

KSE: Russian oil tracker finds Western ships reducing services for Russian exports, but sanction dodging widespread

bne IntelliNews November 24, 2023

Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) is closely following Russia’s oil export business that has been targeted by Western sanctions and has released its latest update of the Russian Oil Tracker.

KSE: Bold measures are needed as Russia’s oil is slipping beyond G7 reach

Kyiv School of Economics November 20, 2023

Russia has successfully dodged the $60 oil price cap sanctions. Bold action needs to be taken to make sure the rule is enforced.

COMMENT: Russia's outlook remains fragile despite oil price boost

bne IntelliNews November 20, 2023

Russia’s economy is on course to expand by 2.2% this year and growth is expected to stay above 2% for the following two years, according to the Central Bank of Russia, yet the West’s extreme sanctions have imposed a real cost.

STOLYPIN: No peace talks for Ukraine, but at least peace thoughts

Mark Galeotti director of consultancy Mayak Intelligence and honorary professor at UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies November 10, 2023

There aren’t yet talks between Russia and Ukraine, nor even talk about talks, but there is now talk about talk about talks. That’s a necessary development, but also an uncomfortable one.

KSE: Ukraine’s budget deficit up to $3.6bn in September, on course for $50bn for full year

Kyiv School of Economics Center of Public Finance and Governance November 7, 2023

In September, Ukraine’s central budget incurred a deficit of $3.6 bn (excluding a $1.25 bn US grant), a bit higher than the August figure of $3.34 bn and in line with the $3.64bn average monthly budget deficit (net of grants) for 2023.

RIDDLE: Russian trade with China as a Matryoshka doll

Aleksei Chigadaev for Riddle November 7, 2023

A Matryoshka doll or nesting dolls is the best metaphor to describe the economic-political relationship between Russia and China. Some elements of this Matryoshka doll are determined by market relations, while others are manually controlled.

COMMENT: US, Europe, and Russia jostle for influence in the South Caucasus

Zachary Weiss in Tbilisi November 6, 2023

More than a month after Azerbaijan attacked ethnic Armenians living in its Nagorno-Karabakh region, displacing 120,000 people, foreign political influence in the Caucasus is still shifting.

NEMETHY: Is the global economy reaching a tipping point?

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors November 5, 2023

The US economy is powering forward with almost 5% GDP growth as per the last measured quarter. Global GDP growth is in the range of 3%. This article will explore whether we are reaching (or have already passed) a tipping point.

COMMENT: Aliyev could still lose in the Great Game he started

Robert Ananyan in Yerevan November 1, 2023

The Azerbaijani dictator is refusing to engage with the European format of negotiations with Armenia but the West could still force him to take part.

CENUSA: The Middle East crisis and the European perspective for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Denis Cenusa in Germany November 1, 2023

The need to act on other geopolitical fronts should not be a reason for the EU to reduce its attention to enlargement.

COMMENT: When there is no conflict in the South Caucasus, there will be no need for Russia there

Robert Ananyan in Yerevan October 26, 2023

It is realistic to expect Armenia's strategic turn to the West and Russia's final withdrawal from the South Caucasus after the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish relations.

MACRO ADVISORY: Why some oligarchs are sanctioned and some are not

Chris Weafer CEO of Macro-Advisory October 26, 2023

"If the people who are in charge in the EU believe that because of sanctions, I could approach Mr. Putin and tell him to stop the war, and it will work, then I’m afraid we’re all in big trouble." Mikhail Fridman, Russian oligarch.

RIDDLE: How sanctions are draining the Russian automotive industry

Vakhtang Partsvania for Riiddle October 25, 2023

KSE: Russia’s macroeconomic situation shows signs of improvement, sanctions need to be tightened

bne IntelliNews October 18, 2023

KSE Institute released its October Russia Chartbook, “Macroeconomic Situation Shows Signs of Improvement, Sanctions Need to Be Tightened” providing an overview of Russia’s economy, foreign trade, fiscal and monetary policies.

KABANOVSKY: Israel and Ukraine are two acts in one tragic opera

bne IntelliNews October 13, 2023

The war in Ukraine and Israel are two sides of the same coin minted by dictatorial, terrorist regimes in Russia and Iran that are increasingly isolated and under extreme pressure.

COMMENT: Non-Western tankers carry most of Russian crude exports, G7 oil price cap fails

bne IntelliNews October 13, 2023

Three-fifths of Russia's seaborne crude exports are now being shipped by tankers not required to comply with the G7 oil price cap, according to S&P Global data, as the oil price cap sanctions are increasingly seen to have failed.