Eastern Europe / Opinion
NEMETHY: Is Ukraine War the beginning of World War III?
The conventional definition of a World War is that it involves the participation of multiple major powers in a global conflict. Yet one increasingly hears that the Ukrainian War signals the outbreak of World War III.
RIDDLE: The Russian army in 2023
More than 10 months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, looking back at 2022, the Kremlin is sparing no effort to at least partially restore the capability of its armed forces, which continue to shrink amidst heavy fighting.
‘Yesterday’s strategy won’t do’ in Europe’s approach to Iran says Carnegie analyst
Cornelius Adebahr point to signs of power struggle within Tehran’s elite. Several insiders have in recent weeks argued in favour of more substantial reforms to address protesters’ grievances.
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PANNIER: You won’t catch Turkmenistan putting all its eggs in one (Russian) basket
Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov’s visit to Beijing may not have secured more gas sales, but it did serve to reaffirm ties with the country’s only stable major partner.
NEMETHY: Key economic and financial drivers to watch in 2023
There is an old joke that the role of economic forecasters is to make astrologers look good. Forecasting GDP or inflation for the upcoming year with any degree of accuracy is virtually impossible, but there are some scary signs appearing.
CENUSA: Preventing Russian threats in 2023: three priorities for risk reduction for the West.
"The failure to prevent the crisis in Ukraine exposed the limitations of the warning and risk reduction mechanisms used by the EU..."
COMMENT: 100 years since the USSR’s foundation? So what?!
I remember during the 2017 centenary of the February and October Revolutions wondering how the world looked at Russia with great intrigue. How would the Russian state square with this fateful year? How do Russians feel about it now?
THE MITTELEUROPEAN VIEW: Western banks go back to square one in CEE
Major Western banks had already adjusted their regional portfolio allocations back to Central Europe so the Ukraine war has not forced a complete reassessment of business strategies.
PANNIER: How Putin may have leant on Turkmenistan to spike gas-for-Europe plan
President Berdimuhamedov may have put Turkish counterpart Erdogan’s nose out of joint by shelving pipeline interconnector proposal.
IMF: Global food prices to remain elevated amid war, costly energy, La Niña.
Interest rate hikes have eased price pressures, but the weather, war and material costs could keep food prices elevated for longer,
IMF: Riding the global debt rollercoaster
Global debt remained above pre-pandemic levels in 2021 even after posting its steepest decline in 70 years, underscoring the challenges for policymakers.
NEMETHY: The case for gold today – again
In April 2021 gold was sitting around a price of $1,700; as of December 10, 2022 it is now approaching $1,800. Relative to just about every other asset class, this is not a bad performance.
MEDUZA: Ukrainian strikes on targets inside Russia could mark a new phase in the war
Two days in a row this week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used drones to strike targets deep within Russia. Satellite images from December 5 show that Ukraine hit the Engels air base near Saratov and the Dyagilevo air base near Ryazan.
ING: Europe faces stiff competition for natural gas
The collapse in European natural gas prices in recent months has created a false sense of security. While the current winter appears to be more manageable, the region will find it more difficult to build adequate storage for the 2023/24 winter.
RIMMER: You only sing when you’re winning
Twenty odd years back, Ron Atkinson, doyen among cigar-chomping and sheepskin-coated British football managers, was parachuted in, mid-season, to help bottom-of-the-league Nottingham Forest avoid the drop. The team was relegated after losing 8-1.
PANNIER: Russia will be the elephant in the intray for Kazakhstan’s re-elected Tokayev
With victory in this weekend’s snap poll a formality, the president will already be thinking about how to rebalance relations with Russia, China and the West.
COMMENT: Russian tactics against Ukraine hit Moldovan energy sector
Moldova is in the front line this winter as Russia's attack on Ukraine spills over to undermine the republic's energy security.
NEMETHY: The cure for high prices is – high prices
Prices are important economic signals. High prices – whether for energy foodstuffs, etc., are signals to the world to (a) supply more; (b) substitute; or (c) conserve. But how do you bring inflation down?
RIDDLE: Further to fall – Russia’s grinding mobilisation
On November 1, the Russian public was told by President Putin that the government’s ‘partial military mobilisation’ was apparently over. But how will it impact the Russian economy?
Iran for first time involved in major war on European continent, conclude analysts
By sending Russia drones, military advisors and perhaps ballistic missiles, Tehran seen as making it plain that it regards the Islamic Republic’s interests as intertwined with those of Moscow.
