Despite the significant headwinds Ukraine has faced in 2023, economic activity is surprising to the upside. Real GDP will be up more than 5% in 2023, inflation has plummeted to single digits, and NBU reserves hit historical highs.
Inflation rates are coming down across the Emerging Markets and are now entering a second phase, Capital Economics said in a note on November 28. Central Banks are getting ready to cut interest rates but rate cuts will come slowly.
The economic sanctions imposed as a result of the war of aggression started by Russia in March 2022 have changed the Russian financial market in many ways. Now foreign investors are leaving.
Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) is closely following Russia’s oil export business that has been targeted by Western sanctions and has released its latest update of the Russian Oil Tracker.
Russia has successfully dodged the $60 oil price cap sanctions. Bold action needs to be taken to make sure the rule is enforced.
Russia’s economy is on course to expand by 2.2% this year and growth is expected to stay above 2% for the following two years, according to the Central Bank of Russia, yet the West’s extreme sanctions have imposed a real cost.
There aren’t yet talks between Russia and Ukraine, nor even talk about talks, but there is now talk about talk about talks. That’s a necessary development, but also an uncomfortable one.
In September, Ukraine’s central budget incurred a deficit of $3.6 bn (excluding a $1.25 bn US grant), a bit higher than the August figure of $3.34 bn and in line with the $3.64bn average monthly budget deficit (net of grants) for 2023.
A Matryoshka doll or nesting dolls is the best metaphor to describe the economic-political relationship between Russia and China. Some elements of this Matryoshka doll are determined by market relations, while others are manually controlled.
More than a month after Azerbaijan attacked ethnic Armenians living in its Nagorno-Karabakh region, displacing 120,000 people, foreign political influence in the Caucasus is still shifting.
The US economy is powering forward with almost 5% GDP growth as per the last measured quarter. Global GDP growth is in the range of 3%. This article will explore whether we are reaching (or have already passed) a tipping point.
The Azerbaijani dictator is refusing to engage with the European format of negotiations with Armenia but the West could still force him to take part.
The need to act on other geopolitical fronts should not be a reason for the EU to reduce its attention to enlargement.
It is realistic to expect Armenia's strategic turn to the West and Russia's final withdrawal from the South Caucasus after the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish relations.
"If the people who are in charge in the EU believe that because of sanctions, I could approach Mr. Putin and tell him to stop the war, and it will work, then I’m afraid we’re all in big trouble." Mikhail Fridman, Russian oligarch.
KSE Institute released its October Russia Chartbook, “Macroeconomic Situation Shows Signs of Improvement, Sanctions Need to Be Tightened” providing an overview of Russia’s economy, foreign trade, fiscal and monetary policies.
The war in Ukraine and Israel are two sides of the same coin minted by dictatorial, terrorist regimes in Russia and Iran that are increasingly isolated and under extreme pressure.
Three-fifths of Russia's seaborne crude exports are now being shipped by tankers not required to comply with the G7 oil price cap, according to S&P Global data, as the oil price cap sanctions are increasingly seen to have failed.