Will he? Won’t he? With Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan it’s not a case of “Look, the emperor has no clothes” right now, it’s more a case of “Look, his garments are looking a little threadbare in parts, might they unravel?” So will the executive president go for the cancellation of the embarrassing Istanbul election result and attempt to reassert his full authority over the Turks who previously thought he and his ruling AKP party were entirely unbeatable?

Well, April 8 did not bring the desired clarity but Erdogan, prior to his departure for Moscow and a meeting with Vladimir Putin, certainly made it clear to reporters at Ataturk Airport that he is paving the way to a possible revocation of the narrow defeat suffered by the AKP in Istanbul, a city it and previous parties associated with Erdogan have ruled for a quarter of a century. In fact, he went so far as to say “some organised crimes” and “widespread irregularities” had occurred during the Istanbul voting held on March 31.

"In Istanbul, where there are more than 10 million voters, no one has the right and authority to claim victory with a margin of 13,000-14,000 votes," Erdogan remarked. But he did not specify how wide a margin is exactly required to claim such a victory.

Freudian slip
Erdogan also suffered a Freudian slip during his comments to press, and quickly amended himself. He remarked “…if there is like a one percent problematic vote in America, they hold snap elections. Or, let's not say snap elections, they repeat elections,” bianet reported.

The other humiliating defeat suffered by the AKP at the hands of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) on polling day, that of Ankara, has by now been confirmed by election board officials but “Erdogan is clearly unwilling to relinquish control over Istanbul,” according to a note from Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of Teneo Intelligence in London. “The rhetoric of the government and the opposition has put both in positions from which it is hard to back down,” he added.

Claims by Erdogan that his opponents had stolen votes in Istanbul were on April 8 rejected by CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his election ally Meral Aksener of Iyi (Good) Party. They accused the president of interfering with democracy at a joint press conference in Ankara.

“This is not about parties but democracy,” Kilicdaroglu said. “Either they will stand by democracy or democracy will be massacred by judges,” he said, referring to the composition of the election board.

“Renewing the election until the AK Party wins” is the type of thing one sees in dictatorships, said Aksener.

“Strategic mind”
“A strategic mind has united certain forces and triggered this organized irregularity,” AKP deputy chairman Ali Ihsan Yavuz said about the Istanbul vote, according to Bloomberg.

If Erdogan can get through this grassroots storm (note that the grassroots are not to be underestimated in Turkey, for it is within the grassroots where successful politicians so often build up their power base as Erdogan did as mayor of Istanbul from 1994), he will know there are no more major elections scheduled for the country for four years. But with the excruciating imbalances that are beginning to build up in recession-hit, currency crisis-stricken Turkey, many Turks do not believe that period can pass without snap elections.

In response to Erdogan’s comments on the Istanbul voting, the opposition candidate in Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, who believes he should already have been declared the official victor, detailed the actual official current margin of his lead. “I do not even follow some of his statements any more. It is better not to follow them than to follow them and feel regret. But, since you have reminded me, let me say this. There is currently a margin of over 15 thousand votes… If they can use such sentences to find this number inadequate, then why did they hold celebrations at 10 p.m. on election night [when they, the AKP, were ahead by a margin of] three thousand votes?... They should at least question this…,” bianet reported him as saying.

“My initial take on these elections were that they were a win-win for Turkey. Something in them for everyone, and that democracy was affirmed in Turkey, and alive and kicking. As of now, they are turning into a lose-lose, with democracy in Turkey now at risk/under challenge—whichever way you look at it. Given the huge economic challenges facing Turkey, this is the last thing that Turkey needs at this stage—a period of continued political uncertainty, with the prospect of re-run elections in Istanbul,” Timothy Ash of Bluebay Asset Management said on April 8 in an emailed note to investors.

On April 5, IHS Markit had also seemed more positive on Erdogan’s direction regarding the election results, stating in a note: “It is more likely than not that Erdogan will eventually accept the AKP's loss of the Istanbul and Ankara municipalities. Although various AKP figures have disputed the results, Erdogan is likely to eventually accept the electoral outcome, seeking at least to benefit from an improvement in international perception regarding the democratic process in Turkey.

“The election result reflects voter discontent over rampant inflation and rising unemployment following Turkey's currency crisis in late 2018. With more than four years until the next round of elections, the government is now likely to prioritise structural reforms over populist policies.”