Opinion

Turkey’s opposition ‘twiddles thumbs’ as country ‘rapidly declines as a functioning state’

bne IntelIiNews October 23, 2022

Ahead of elections, Nation Alliance, absorbed in “a game of thrones”, is yet to settle on a presidential candidate to challenge Erdogan’s “autocratic wasteland”, says academic.

ING: Aluminium market braced for supply disruptions

Ewa Manthey at ING October 19, 2022

Global aluminium prices briefly rallied after news that the United States is considering an effective ban on Russian imports of the metal in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

Was Tajik leader’s rant at Putin defiance or a plea for greater dependence?

Eurasianet October 18, 2022

Rahmon indicates that he wants more money and attention from Moscow.

STOLYPIN: Political stalemate leaves battlefield with casting vote

Mark Galeotti director of consultancy Mayak Intelligence October 18, 2022

However much well-meaning Westerners may speak glowingly of the need for talks between Kyiv and Moscow, at present there is no scope or prospect for any meaningful talks. The battlefield will decide the conclusion to the conflict, not negotiations.

HESS: Tajikistan’s President Rahmon demands respect from Russia

Maximilian Hess in London October 17, 2022

Winston Churchill once alluded to Kremlin power struggles as 'bulldogs fighting under a carpet' but the barking was remarkably audible when Tajik President Emomali made a rare and emotional speech calling on Russia for "respect"

ING: Polish government’s electricity price cap to have only minimal impact on inflation

Adam Antoniak of ING October 14, 2022

Price cap might just take just 0.2pp - 0.4pp off 2023 CPI, says bank.

PANNIER: Russia’s two centuries of Central Asia dominance are over

Bruce Pannier October 11, 2022

The disastrous Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a geopolitical tectonic shift. The five ‘stans’ are looking at other foreign partner options.

IMF BLOG: Policymakers need steady hand as storm clouds gather over global economy

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Economic Counsellor and the Director of Research of the IMF. October 11, 2022

One-third of the world economy will likely contract this year or next amid shrinking real incomes and rising prices. The global economy continues to face the challenges of war, a cost-of-living crisis and an energy crisis.

RIMMER: Post-Putin Russia is worse, not better

bne IntelliNews October 10, 2022

Vladimir Putin, the recidivist war criminal, might well have dreamt of Marilyn Monroe’s breathy returns in his ear or even the Nobel Peace Prize on a silver platter for his seventieth birthday.

NEMETHY: Is the world heading towards a “polycrisis”?

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors October 5, 2022

According to historian Adam Tooze, we are currently potentially facing a “polycrisis”: a number of smaller to medium-sized crises in the world that have the potential to combine and reinforce each other.

OPINION: Ukraine refugee-internal displacement bond gains traction

Gary Kleiman of Kleiman Intl Consultants Inc October 4, 2022

Tailored offerings can bring in billions of dollars in commercial fresh money from both conventional and ESG/impact-oriented fund managers.

Russian men fleeing the draft are caught between suspected of being pro-Putin and Western closed-door policies

Denis Cenusa in Germany September 29, 2022

The partial mobilisation announced on September 21 by Russian leader Vladimir Putin has caused an unprecedented exodus of the Russian male population eligible for the draft. But do they support him and can they cross into the EU?

Sanctioned Russian diamonds are reaching the US consumer, but some are getting there legally – for now

Richard Chetwode chairman of Namibian diamond mining company Trustco Resources in London September 28, 2022

Russian state-controlled diamond monopoly Alrosa has been sanctioned but some of its diamonds are making it on to the international market legally. The upcoming eighth package of sanctions will crack down on Russia’s diamond and close loopholes.

EBRD: Reduced gas supplies and inflation to slow growth further in EBRD regions

EBRD September 28, 2022

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects growth in its region will slow as a result of gas supply problems that are feeding an energy crisis. The bank says growth will slow to 2.3% in 2022 in its region and 3% in 2023.

ING: Eurozone PMI suggests the region may already be in recession

Bert Colijn Senior Economist Eurozone for ING September 26, 2022

The third decline in a row for the eurozone PMI indicates that business activity has been contracting throughout the quarter. This confirms our view that a recession could have already started.

ING: Energy price caps are appealing, but are not without risks

Gerben Hieminga of ING, Nadège Tillier of ING September 21, 2022

On 14 September 2022, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced in her State of the Union speech a set of proposals to mitigate the impact of high energy prices.

OPINION: Belgrade’s EuroPride parade was a victory against the Kremlin

Ann Smith in New York September 20, 2022

The triumph of love over hate showed most Serbian citizens want to live in the democratic world despite Moscow’s efforts.

NEMETHY: The dawn of a new era: more expensive energy and wages?

Les Nemethy September 20, 2022

Psychologists say that the human brain suffers from dozens of different biases, perhaps one of the most important of these being “recency bias”. We tend to project the past into the future and Putin's war has radically changed that future.

PANNIER: Putin arrived with little to offer an SCO summit that showed no real clout

Bruce Pannier in Prague September 18, 2022

Disparate interests of organisation’s member nations meant many major issues of the day could not even be discussed. But there was only one dominant member: China.

COMMENT: Armenia-Azerbaijan military escalation is a test for Russian status quo in the region

Denis Cenusa September 15, 2022

The new outbreak of fighting tests Russia's relevance in maintaining peace and stability in the South Caucasus and could endanger its growing alliance with Turkey.

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