COMMENT: The Republic of Turkey’s uncelebrated 100th birthday – nothing left to celebrate?

Akin Nazli in Belgrade October 27, 2023

Sunday’s centennial of Ataturk’s secular nation is a bothersome date in the diary for the Islamist-rooted Erdogan regime. At the same time, hardly any Turks feel the dire state of the country merits acclamation.

COMMENT: When there is no conflict in the South Caucasus, there will be no need for Russia there

Robert Ananyan in Yerevan October 26, 2023

It is realistic to expect Armenia's strategic turn to the West and Russia's final withdrawal from the South Caucasus after the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish relations.

MACRO ADVISORY: Why some oligarchs are sanctioned and some are not

Chris Weafer CEO of Macro-Advisory October 26, 2023

"If the people who are in charge in the EU believe that because of sanctions, I could approach Mr. Putin and tell him to stop the war, and it will work, then I’m afraid we’re all in big trouble." Mikhail Fridman, Russian oligarch.

Turkey, the US and the Israel-Hamas War

Henri J. Barkey October 26, 2023

President Erdogan’s recent troubles with the United States have prevented Turkey from playing a potentially constructive role in the early phases of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

RIDDLE: How sanctions are draining the Russian automotive industry

Vakhtang Partsvania for Riiddle October 25, 2023

KSE: Russia’s macroeconomic situation shows signs of improvement, sanctions need to be tightened

bne IntelliNews October 18, 2023

KSE Institute released its October Russia Chartbook, “Macroeconomic Situation Shows Signs of Improvement, Sanctions Need to Be Tightened” providing an overview of Russia’s economy, foreign trade, fiscal and monetary policies.

IMF: The highest interest rates in a generation are putting banks in danger

Charles Cohen Srobona Mitra and Fabio Natalucci for IMF October 18, 2023

Central banks could keep interest rates higher for longer as they fight to curb the worst inflation in a generation and that is putting weak banks in danger.

ING: Change of power in Poland should unlock investment potential of the economy

Rafal Benecki of ING October 16, 2023

Exit polls suggest the Polish opposition coalition is set to take power. Restoring institutional order could unlock the potential of the economy and release EU funds.

KABANOVSKY: Israel and Ukraine are two acts in one tragic opera

bne IntelliNews October 13, 2023

The war in Ukraine and Israel are two sides of the same coin minted by dictatorial, terrorist regimes in Russia and Iran that are increasingly isolated and under extreme pressure.

COMMENT: Non-Western tankers carry most of Russian crude exports, G7 oil price cap fails

bne IntelliNews October 13, 2023

Three-fifths of Russia's seaborne crude exports are now being shipped by tankers not required to comply with the G7 oil price cap, according to S&P Global data, as the oil price cap sanctions are increasingly seen to have failed.

COMMENT: The new Iran – Azerbaijan transit route reflects shifting geopolitical realities

Fuad Shahbazov October 12, 2023

The revised Zangezur Corridor project through Iran will enable Azerbaijan to restore diplomatic relations and facilitate trade with its big neighbour, while Armenia will remain in play as a future partner for regional transport connections.

ING: Azerbaijan at inflection point following retaking of Karabakh

Dmitry Dolgin, James Wilson October 12, 2023

As a low-risk financial powerhouse, gas-rich country would be an attractive borrower, if it were to need the money.

ING: Armenian economy faces upside risk from Karabakh refugee influx but Ukraine war spillovers mostly positive

Dmitry Dolgin, James Wilson October 11, 2023

GDP growth continues above trend. Exchange rate overvalued relative to peers.

KSE: Refuting russia’s four grain narrative myths

bne IntelliNews October 10, 2023

Russia has been promoting four myths about Ukraine grain exports to the rest of the world, as it continues its naval blockade on seaborne exports that undermine global food security, the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) Agrocenter writes.

ING: Fiscal policy key watch factor for Kazakhstan’s financial market

Dmitry Dolgin, James Wilson October 9, 2023

Growing local debt amid positive real rates could draw attention of foreign portfolio investors.

COMMENT: Georgia awaits EU verdict on candidate status with trepidation

Zachary Weiss in Tbilisi October 9, 2023

A green light would not be a signal of the ruling Georgian Dream government’s actual preparedness for membership. The criteria that the EU has set for Georgia have not been reached, or even approached, despite the government's boasts.

KSE: Russian seaborne oil exports fall to lowest level since September 2022, but oil revenues surge

The Kyiv School of Economics October 9, 2023

In August 2023, Russian seaborne oil exports reached their lowest point since September 2022, according to the September edition of ‘Russian Oil Tracker’ by KSE Institute. This decline came as Russia reduced its reliance on Western markets.

ING: Uzbekistan posting solid growth rates, key focus is now the soum

Dmitry Dolgin, James Wilson October 8, 2023

Broad look at what geopolitical shift and domestic developments mean for economic activity, fiscal and monetary policy and interest and exchange rates, plus a snapshot of bank sector lending.

COMMENT: Nagorno-Karabakh – the world should have seen this crisis coming, and it’s not over yet

Svante Lundgren of Lund University October 5, 2023

After the suppression of the Karabakh Armenians, President Ilham Aliyev reiterated that he sees what he calls “western Azerbaijan” as historical Azerbaijani territory that his country therefore has the right to reclaim.

THE VIEW FROM MITTELEUROPA: Reconfiguring Chinese economic strategies in CESEE

Marcus How of VE Insight in Vienna October 5, 2023

Chinese FDI is not likely to recover to its previous levels in CESEE, yet that masks the niche profile that Beijing is carving out for itself in the region.