Opinion

PANNIER: At Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, watch the action on the sidelines

Bruce Pannier in Prague September 13, 2022

Most important discussions and agreements at Samarkand gathering likely to concern regional connectivity, and the odd men out are Russia and Belarus.

GAV DON: Ukrainian offensive takes territory, but moves the political landscape more

Gav Don in Edinburgh September 13, 2022

While the territory captured has little strategic importance, the 2,000 square kilometres taken will massively energise and encourage Ukraine’s will to resist, and the will to pay for Ukraine’s resistance within the Nato alliance.

RIDDLE: Elections in wartime – why the September votes matter

Andras Toth-Czifra in New York for Riddle September 12, 2022

On September 11, Russia held regional and municipal elections. 14 of its regions will see direct gubernatorial elections, while six vote for a whole new legislature. Elections are also set for local councils across 11 cities.

COMMENT: Samarkand SCO Summit – dialogue and co-operation in an interconnected world

Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Tashkent September 12, 2022

Uzbekistan's chairmanship in the SCO has come at a moment of great change in the world – a period of "historical fracture", when one era ends and another begins, still unpredictable and unknown.

RIDDLE: Russian elections out of sight

Stanislav Andreychukis of Golos in Moscow for Riddle September 11, 2022

Russia is holding local elections in 14 regions, which are supposed to be boring, but coming in the midst of a war they are more important than usual. However, with the introduction of online voting any chance of a free vote is gone.

GUSTAFSON: Russian oil exports – are sanctions working?

Professor Thane Gustafson in Washington September 11, 2022

Six months after the beginning of the Russian invasion, the “Devil’s Dance” of Western sanctions and Russian oil exports and revenues has barely begun. The main contest still lies ahead.

IMF: How food and energy are driving the global inflation surge

Philip Barrett economist for the IMF September 11, 2022

Global inflation was generally moderating when the pandemic began, and the downward trend continued into the early months of the crisis. But surging prices since late 2020 have pushed inflation higher than in all of the last five years combined.

ING: Back to the 80s? What soaring inflation, US rate hikes and a stronger dollar mean for EM sovereign debt

James Wilson sovereign EM strategist at ING September 11, 2022

Soaring inflation, rate hikes and a stronger dollar are reminiscent of the early 1980s – a decade that brought a wave of EM sovereign debt crises. This year has already seen Sri Lanka default, hit by an external liquidity crisis.

ING: ECB hikes by a historic 75bp, more hikes in the works

Carsten Brzeski Global Head of Macro for ING Research September 9, 2022

The European Central Bank has decided on the largest rate hike since the start of the monetary union and has given the impression that it is fully determined to do more on September 7.

RIDDLE: Russian metallurgy is buckling under wartime economic realities

Nick Trickett for Riddle September 7, 2022

As the invasion of Ukraine grinds past the half-year mark, Russian policymakers have finally begun to reckon with the scale of the economic crisis on their hands. Sanctions and a slowdown have already led to a RUB900bn deficit.

NEMETHY: Demographics and Cost of Capital

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors September 5, 2022

While there are short-term fluctuations in interest rates caused by economic circumstances and central bank policies, there are also long-term structural trends affecting interest rates.

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