Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index (chart), compiled by CFA Society Romania, increased by 2.3 points month on month to 40.4 in January. Despite this improvement, it remained below the neutral 50-point threshold, indicating continued concerns among financial analysts.

This marked the second consecutive month of improvement following a sharp decline in late 2024, attributed to political instability. Further recovery is likely to depend on political stability ahead of and after Romania’s presidential elections in May. A second fiscal consolidation package, expected post-election, may further support economic sentiment, following the impact of the first package introduced at the end of 2024.

Both components of the index – current situation evaluation and expectations – registered gains, though the outlook remained pessimistic.

The expectations component rose by 1.7 points to 32.5, marking its highest level since last summer but still deep in negative territory. Meanwhile, the current situation component increased more significantly, by 3.5 points to 56.2, reflecting a moderately stable economic environment. 

Analysts surveyed by CFA Society Romania revised their median GDP growth forecast for 2025 slightly upward to 1.5%, compared with 1.3% in December. This remains well below the government’s more optimistic projection of 2.5%. The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to 7.3% of GDP from 8.7% in 2024, suggesting confidence that the government will come close to its 7% target.

Inflation is projected to reach 4.97% over the next 12 months, significantly above the National Bank of Romania’s forecast of 3.8% year on year for the end of 2025 and 3.1% for March 2026.