The industrial output in Romania (chart) further declined, by 0.9% q/q, in Q3 while the annual growth rate remained negative at 5.6% y/y, according to data published by the statistics office INS.
Data also shows that the industrial activity showed a certain improvement through the quarter and it was moderate in the core manufacturing sectors (-0.1% q/q) but this is far from altering the longer-term downward trend.
In the 12 months to September, the industrial output contracted by 4.9% y/y (-4.0% y/y for the manufacturing sector).
The automobile industry, however, stood out with a 6.3% y/y advance for the 12-month period. Metallurgy dragged down the overall performance with a 21% y/y contraction. Activity in the food industry was roughly flat at -0.2% y/y.
Romania’s government expects the industrial output to bottom out in 2024 at 0.8% y/y, and grow by 3.5-4% y/y per annum over the next three years with the value-added expected to perform slightly better.
Besides the automobile and car parts industries, the state forecasting body CNP expects the food, chemical, pharma, plastic and rubber industries to perform above average over the next years. Tobacco processing, light industries and metallurgy are seen as laggards.