The government of Romanian Prime Minister Viorica Dancila might survive the collapse of the ruling coalition for a long period of time, as the opposition parties are more concerned about positioning ahead of the general elections next year than forming a new ruling coalition that would engage in risky political actions and alliances.

“We took the decision to stay united and remain in office. The government’s conduct is not perfect, but it is certainly effective,” said Dancila at the beginning of the government meeting on August 27.

A new parliamentary majority has not emerged yet to replace the former coalition, and this seems to be a necessary condition to be met before a no-confidence motion to overthrow the government. In the absence of a no-confidence motion, under current constitutional provisions the prime minister can indefinitely attempt to get lawmakers’ approval from parliament, meaning that the current government might remain de facto in government, with its capacity reduced as long as both sides (Dancila and the opposition) agree with this situation as the least politically costly scenario.

Three ministers from the junior ruling partner, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (Alde), resigned from government on August 27 as Alde officially pulled out of the coalition in the day before. Foreign Minister Ramona Manescu of Alde remained in office, at the risk of being expelled from the party — which is very likely.

Technically, under a new political structure, Dancila should get parliament’s, rather than the president’s endorsement for the new ministers. She has 45 days to make nominations, though. Interim ministers have been appointed already. Parliament rejecting the minister candidates would not result in the government being overthrown.

Furthermore, even the opposition’s talked of no-confidence motion seems now a more remote scenario, as the National Liberal Party (PNL) leader Ludovic Orban said that he expects a majority of MPs to sign the no-confidence motion before it is submitted. A third of MPs can submit a no-confidence motion against the government, but Orban wants to avoid taking any risks.

The most likely new ruling majority would be composed of the PNL and the newly emerged political bloc formed by Alde and the Pro Romania party of former prime minister Victor Ponta. The other political bloc formed by Save Romania Union (USR) and PLUS is ready to support a minority cabinet formed by the PNL, but USR expressed more caution in regard to Alde or Pro Romania. Nonetheless, they have not totally rejected extending limited support for a minority government formed by PNL, Alde and Pro Romania.

USR leader Dan Barna confirmed that his party would support a no-confidence motion against Dancila’s government and would support a government formed by another majority — but under no circumstances would his party partake a ruling coalition together with Ponta or Alde leader Calin Popescu-Tariceanu, he stressed.

“Ruling beside Tariceanu or Ponta is simply unacceptable for our electorate,” Barna stated.

But he admitted that Orban is a possible option for the prime minister seat, adding that it is the president who should nominate the new premier.