OUTLOOK 2023: Southeast Europe

bne IntelliNews January 9, 2023

The war in Ukraine had a seismic effect on the security, political and economic landscape of Southeast Europe.

Romania expected to end monetary tightening cycle with 25bp hike on January 10

Iulian Ernst in Bucharest January 9, 2023

Since the headline inflation is not likely to ease below 10% by the end of the year, the BNR will most probably keep the monetary policy rate at 7% for at least a year.

bneGREEN: Record 2022 for coal threatens green targets

Richard Lockhart in Edinburgh January 6, 2023

World coal consumption reached a new high in 2022 before levelling out in 2023 and 2024, with rising usage in emerging Asian countries cancelling out falling demand in advanced economies.

Emerging Europe backs nuclear power to solve energy needs

bne IntelliNews January 6, 2023

Hungary, Czechia, Poland, Slovakia and Romania all plan new reactors and many countries are also looking at small modular reactors for the future.

bneGREEN NEO: Petrochemical companies should step up the fight against plastic waste

NEO January 6, 2023

Plastic waste has become a key issue in the fight against climate change. As experts and activists debate the merits of recycling versus reducing plastics overall, petrochemical companies should speed up their plans to recycle plastic waste.

January temperature records broken across Europe

Anna Fleck for Statista January 5, 2023

Eight countries in Europe recorded all-time high temperature records for January on New Year’s Day this year. The following data draws from the visualization of meteorologist Scott Duncan and reports by the BBC, Statista reports.

Romania’s construction activity accelerates

bne IntelliNews January 1, 2023

The construction works index in Romania rose by 34.3% y/y in October, reaching another decades-long high.

THE MITTELEUROPEAN VIEW: Western banks go back to square one in CEE

Gunter Deuber of Raiffeisen Research December 21, 2022

Major Western banks had already adjusted their regional portfolio allocations back to Central Europe so the Ukraine war has not forced a complete reassessment of business strategies.

Romanian president and ruling PNL bleeding support after Schengen failure

Iulian Ernst in Bucharest December 16, 2022

Polls show Romanians mostly blame President Klaus Iohannis for the country's failure to enter the border-free Schengen zone.

ING: Europe is pushing climate-friendly travel

Diogo Gouveia sector economist with ING, Rico Luman senior sector economist with ING December 16, 2022

To reduce carbon emissions, Europe aims to transition travellers from planes to trains. Its extensive rail network and the growing consumer demand for greener transport solutions provide a clear opportunity.

Apocalypse 2050: World on course for 15% GDP fall

Richard Lockhart in Edinburgh December 15, 2022

The world is set to see global GDP plummet by a catastrophic 15% by 2050 if current emissions trends are not reined in and global warming reaches 2.2°C by 2050.

ING: EU reaches deal on world’s first carbon border tax

Ewa Manthey Commodities Strategist based in London for ING December 15, 2022

EU policymakers have provisionally agreed this week to introduce the world’s first carbon border tax in a push to encourage cleaner industrial production globally and protect its domestic industry.

Industrial production in Romania dragged down by high energy prices

bne IntelIiNews December 15, 2022

Industrial production in Romania contracted by 2.6% y/y in January-October and the government’s forecasting body expects only a marginal recovery in 2023.

Start of a new super cycle – fat and flat for 2023?

Ben Aris in Berlin December 15, 2022

The global economy has been through some enormous changes in recent years, leading investors and analysts to believe we are at the start of a new high-inflation, lower-growth super-cycle that could last for as long as a decade.

IMF: Global food prices to remain elevated amid war, costly energy, La Niña.

Ervin Prifti . December 14, 2022

Interest rate hikes have eased price pressures, but the weather, war and material costs could keep food prices elevated for longer,

Romania’s inflation leaps up 1.4pp to 16.8% y/y in November

bne IntelliNews December 14, 2022

Further rate increases likely as inflation starts to rise again in November.

Who is winning the sanctions war?

Ben Aris in Berlin December 14, 2022

In December the EU commissioned a secret report to assess just how badly the war in Ukraine, and the polycrisis it is fuelling, is hurting Europe’s economy. Good news: Europe is doing OK; bad news: so is Russia.

Analysts say Turkmenistan told US diplomats ‘it’s not interested’ in Caspian gas-to-Europe connector project, wants major pipeline

Will Conroy in Prague December 13, 2022

Ashgabat said to be signalling that “it won’t get out of bed for anything less”.

Ninth package of sanctions on Russia bogged down in debate

bne IntelliNews December 13, 2022

Debate of what should go into the EU’s ninth package of sanctions is bogged down in disagreement. EU foreign ministers met on December 12 to think up more measures to punish Russia for its war in Ukraine, but could not agree on how best to do this.

IMF: Riding the global debt rollercoaster

Vitor Gaspar Paulo Medas and Roberto Perrelli for the IMF December 13, 2022

Global debt remained above pre-pandemic levels in 2021 even after posting its steepest decline in 70 years, underscoring the challenges for policymakers.