Rosstat released data on consumer incomes and expenditures for 1Q21 on April 29.
According to Rosstat, the nominal average income per capita rose 3% year on year (vs. +3.7% y/y in 4Q20, -0.6% y/y in 3Q20 and -4.7% y/y in 2Q20).
Real money incomes were down 2.8% y/y (vs. -0.7% y/y in 4Q20, -4.1% y/y in 3Q20 and -7.6% y/y in 2Q20) and real disposable incomes were down 3.6% y/y (vs. -0.9% y/y in 4Q20, -5% y/y in 3Q20 and -7% y/y in 2Q20).
“We think there were several reasons for the fall in real disposable incomes in 1Q21. The first reason is the base effects, as pensions were paid out earlier due to the non-working week of 30 March, 2020 to 3 April, 2020 and the beginning of [coronavirus] COVID-19 outlays. Second, the inflation rate surged from 2.4% y/y in 1Q20 to 5.5% y/y in 1Q21, trimming revenue by more than 1ppt. Finally, Rosstat did not count in full the shift in household savings from deposits to financial markets,” Sova Capital said in a note.
“Despite household income falling for the eighth straight year, this is unlikely to stop the recovery momentum because of higher savings buffers, the continued surge in credit and a lack of popular travel destinations, all of which support spending at home.”