Russia's Watcom shopping index recovering in March but still down by a quarter y/y

Russia's Watcom shopping index recovering in March but still down by a quarter y/y
Russia's Watcom shopping index was down by a quarter y/y in the eighth week of this year, but that is largely due to a high base effect. Retail sales didn't crash until week 10 last year, but the March index is still down 14% from the post-lockdown recovery last autumn. / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews March 10, 2021

Russia’s Watcom shopping index continued to recover slowly in March, but the index that measures foot traffic in real time was still down by 24.6% year on year.

The March index registered 375.2 in the eighth week of this year, its lowest level since the index was founded in 2014. While the vaccination programme against the coronavirus (COVID-19) is well underway and infection rates are already falling retailers have been hoping for a return to normality, but it will take some months yet.

The gap between March’s result and that of last year is still largely due to a high base effect and the collapse in retail sales only kicked off in week 10 last year when the first restrictions were imposed.

However, the level of the index in March is also down from the peak of the post-lockdown recovery last autumn by 14.5%, when the index rose to a high of 429. March’s level is also down by a similar amount from the end-of-year level of 421, but on a par with the first week of this year of 377.

The outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain, but analysts believe the economy will start growing in the second quarter and will put in over 3% growth in a bounce-back this year.

 

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