Southeast Europe / Data
Emerging markets see $4bn of outflows in June as global recession fears grow
Pockets of weakness persist in emerging markets where real interest rates are deeply negative – and risks for those countries are rapidly mounting.
Serbia raises key rate to 2.75% due to inflationary pressures
Latest increase in reference interest rate follows raise from 2.5% from 2% in June as inflation continues to accelerate.
Spending by Ukrainian refugees helps push up Romania's retail sales in May
Romania’s retail sales up 8.1% y/y in May, pushed up by refugees' spending as well as households front-loading planned expenditures before expected price rises.
Bosnia’s real GDP expands 5.5% y/y in 1Q22
Growth is expected to slow later in the year, with the World Bank projecting that Bosnia’s economy will rise by just 2.7% in 2022.
Rising industrial prices still put pressure on Romania’s headline inflation
Industrial, or factory-gate, prices in Romania have increased by 46.6% y/y in May, driven up by the rising energy prices.
COVID-19 cases start to rise in Southeast Europe just as tourist season starts
After the lifting of most coronavirus related restrictions and a period of low infections, several countries are now reporting the highest numbers of new cases for months.
Serbia's population continues to decline
The population in Serbia continuously decreased in 2002-2021, with the most pronounced decrease seen in southern and eastern Serbia.
June PMI shows Turkish manufacturing sinking further into contraction territory
Price rises and demand weakness combined to lead to softer new orders and scaling back of production.
CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators fall on polycrisis woes
The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) fell in May as the polycrisis hitting the world took its toll on economies across the entire region.
Europe’s gas storage on track to meet 80% full by start of heating season
Europe’s gas storage tanks were 58.23% full as of June 26 and are still on course to hit the EU target of 80% full by October 1, the traditional start of the heating season, despite Russian cuts in gas flows to Europe this month.
Kosovo’s population dropped to 1.77mn in 2021 as emigration outweighed natural increase
Kosovans who returned home when the pandemic spread across Europe in spring 2020 went abroad again in 2021.
North Macedonia’s PPI jumps 21.7% y/y in May
PPI growth across all sectors continues trend present in North Macedonia since February 2021.
IMF says war in Ukraine, inflation and energy crisis pose challenges to Serbia’s economy
Serbia demonstrated resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic but the IMF has now cut its GDP growth forecast to 3.5% for 2022.
Bulgaria posts highest inflation in SEE amongst EU peers
Bulgaria posted the highest level of inflation in Southeastern Europe amongst EU members after annual inflation hit 13.4% in May, as the whole world fights to avoid stagflation
Moldova’s industrial production rises by 0.2% y/y in 4M22 despite disappointing April figures
Figures for industrial sectors vary widely with a 42.6% for food processing as Moldova substitutes for lost imports from Ukraine, and a 50% fall in production of electric equipment in January-April.
Romania’s construction activity up a mere 1% y/y in January-April
Rising cost of construction materials and the inelastic supply of workers are significant deterrents to the sector’s growth.
Bucharest stock exchange indices fall in 2022 as international uncertainty takes its toll
Most of the Bucharest Stock Exchange indices ended the first five months of 2022 in negative territory, as Russia's invasion of neighbouring Ukraine impacted the Romanian market.
Bulgaria’s inflation hits new record of 15.6% y/y in May
Inflation has been rising for 15 consecutive months but started speeding up recently due to surging energy prices.
North Macedonia’s central bank raises key rate by 0.25 pp for the third time
Three consecutive months of hikes bring the key rate to 2% in a bid to maintain price stability.
Romania’s consumer price inflation reaches 14.5% y/y in May
Food prices increased in line with the average, by 14.3% y/y, while prices of the non-food goods including energy and fuel advanced by 17.2% y/y.
