Southeast Europe / Opinion

COMMENT: The Romanian political crisis during the pandemic

Alexandru M. Tanase in London November 25, 2021

On November 25 one of Romania’s most controversial and unnecessarily prolonged political crises, with profound economic and social implications, came to an end.

ING: Sticky inflation risks force CEE central bankers to keep on hiking rates

Valentin Tataru chief economist for Romania at ING, Peter Virovacz Senior Economist in Hungary at ING, Leszek Kasek is the Senior Economist in Poland at ING, Rafal Benecki is the Chief Economist in Poland at ING November 12, 2021

Disruptions in global value chains continue to weigh on Central and Eastern Europe, and the Delta variant is blurring the outlook for the fourth quarter. Record high inflation can no longer be written off as temporary as rates rise across CEE.

ING: Higher Romanian inflation points to more rate hikes

Valentin Tataru chief economist for Romania at ING November 11, 2021

We anticipated an upside surprise, but the number came in even higher than expected. October inflation reached 7.9% versus our 7.8% estimate. While energy is still to blame, it is clear that price increases have become more generalised.

COMMENT: Bosnia faces its most profound post-war crisis

Alex Young in Belgrade November 3, 2021

Threats to withdraw Bosnian Serbs from state institutions threaten to plunge the country into a deep and prolonged constitutional and security crisis.

THE VIEW FROM MITTELEUROPA: German traffic light coalition could worsen frictions with CEE

Marcus How and Gunter Deuber in Vienna November 1, 2021

A new centre-left government in Berlin could help create a two-tier Europe, especially if it promotes rule of law penalties.

COMMENT: New skirmish between Serbia and Kosovo threatens the future of dialogue

Alex Young in Belgrade September 29, 2021

Without a comprehensive normalisation of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, tensions will continue to fester and the daily lives of Kosovo’s Serbs and Albanians alike will be sorely affected.

ING: ECB’s push for net-zero carbon will grow ESG credit

Timothy Rahill Credit Strategist at ING in Amsterdam, Jeroen van den Broek Global Head of Sector Research at ING in Amsterdam September 24, 2021

In the push for reducing carbon, significant investment will be necessary, and in turn, funding will be required. This will provide growth for the credit market, and in particular for anything associated with ESG.

ING: Romania economy cooling, looking for new drivers

Valentin Tataru chief economist for Romania at ING in Bucharest September 23, 2021

With the rapid economic recovery phase now behind us and the peak of the fourth COVID wave just ahead, the Romanian economy is starting to feel the need for additional growth drivers.

GLOBSEC: No debt ratio is safe for small EU countries

Ivan Šramko and Sona Muzikarova September 10, 2021

Targeted EU fiscal rule reform is desirable but should consider the inherent risks for smaller member states.