The decline of Ukraine’s industrial output slowed to 0.3% y/y in November

The decline of Ukraine’s industrial output slowed to 0.3% y/y in November
The decline of Ukraine’s industrial output slowed to 0.3% y/y in November from 5.0% y/y in October
By bne IntelliNews December 25, 2020

The decline of Ukraine’s industrial output slowed to 0.3% year on year in November from 5.0% y/y in October, the State Statistics Service reported on December 23. Seasonally adjusted output increased 1.5% month on month in November. In 11M20, industrial output dropped 6.2% y/y.

Manufacturing output fell 3.4% y/y in November (after a 6.6% y/y decline in October). In particular, the decline in machinery plummeted to 15.3% y/y (vs. 18.6% y/y in October), chemical production fell 13.4% y/y (vs. 1.9% y/y growth in October), and food production dropped 5.4% y/y (vs. 7.2% y/y in October). At the same time, the output in metallurgy jumped 8.2% y/y (vs. a 3.3% y/y decline in October).

Mining output inched up 1.8% y/y (vs. a 2.5% y/y slide in October), driven by a surge in iron ore production of 10.6% y/y. At the same time, coal output fell 3.6% y/y and oil & gas production dropped 3.1% y/y. The supply of electricity & natural gas advanced 10.0% y/y after a 1.8% y/y decline in October.

Regionally, the steepest declines were observed in the Chernivtsi (-25.4% y/y), Rivne (-20.3% y/y), and Ivano-Frankivsk (-15.2% y/y) regions. Meanwhile, ten out of 25 regions posted growth in industrial output, growing the most in Ukraine-controlled Donetsk (20.7% y/y), Odesa (13.4% y/y) and Zhytomyr (7.8% y/y).

The decline of industrial output cooled off significantly in November. It was mostly due to the advance in iron ore and metals production, driven by the renewal of external demand, as well as the low comparative base effect.

“At the same time, the machinery sector remains deeply depressed, chemical production has failed to demonstrate consistent improvement, and the decline in food production is continuing despite strong household consumption,” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note. “If the improvement in iron ore and metals production continues, Ukraine industry might post a slight growth in December, landing industrial output at [a] 5.5% decline in 2020.”

Data

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