Ukraine’s goods trade balance switched to a deficit of $230mn in June from a surplus of $257mn in May, the State Statistics Service announced in a preliminary report on August 13. The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit amounted to $52mn (vs. a $23mn deficit in May) amid a 2.1% m/m growth of adjusted exports and a 2.7% m/m increase in adjusted imports.
Goods exports jumped 57% y/y in June to $5.32bn (vs. a 61% y/y increase in May). The accelerated growth was mostly driven by exports of ferrous metals and mineral products (both doubled year-on-year).
Goods imports increased 37% y/y to $5.55bn in June (vs. a 55% y/y surge in May). The major contributors to accelerated growth included energy products (+67% y/y) and vehicles (+58% y/y).
In 1H21, the goods trade deficit amounted to $1.3bn (vs. a deficit of $1.5bn in 1H20); goods exports increased 30.7% y/y and imports jumped 28.0% y/y.
“Ukraine’s goods exports are seeing an incredibly favorable period of high prices for the country's major items. This trend is strong enough to counteract the fast upswing in goods imports prompted by quickly growing energy prices as well as the purchase of used automobiles abroad by individuals amid another extension of import tax privileges. Given the results of the external goods trade in 1H21, our forecast for the goods trade deficit of $8.3bn looks too high. We expect the growth rate of both export and import to slow down in 2H21, landing the goods trade deficit at $6.3bn (vs. a $5.1bn deficit in 2020),” an analyst at the Kyiv-based Concorde Capital brokerage said in a research note.