Ukrainian retail sales increased 13.0% year on year in 7M21, slowing from 13.8% y/y growth in 1H21, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on August 20. In July, real retail sales increased 6.5% m/m and 10.1% y/y.
The highest growth of retail sales in 7M21 occurred in Chernivtsi (28.8% y/y), Ternopil (28.2% y/y) and Lviv (20.8% y/y) regions. The slowest growth rates were in Kharkiv (2.3% y/y), Kirovohrad (9.5% y/y) as well as in Ukraine-controlled Donetsk and Mykolayiv (both 9.8% y/y) regions.
The growth rate of retail sales continues to decline as the effect of the low comparative base in the previous year wears off. Nevertheless, retail growth remains quite high, according to Evgeniya Akhtyrko, an analyst at Ukrainian investment company Concorde Capital.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital expects consumer demand to stay strong in 2021, allowing retail sales to accelerate to 10% y/y (vs. 7.6% y/y growth in 2020). “At the moment, we think that rising consumer inflation will not result in a more significant slowdown of real retail growth through the end of the year,” Akhtyrko said.