Ukraine’s industrial output increased 5.4% year on year in May, slowing from 13.0% y/y growth in April, the State Statistics Service reported on June 24. Seasonally adjusted output declined 3.0% month on month in May.
In 5M21, industrial output increased 2.2% y/y (vs. 8.1% y/y decline in 5M20).
“It looks like it’s going to be quite a long road to recovery for Ukrainian industry after the pandemic's havoc. The output growth in May doesn’t look impressive at all given the very low comparative base of the previous year (-12.5% y/y),” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note. “The growth in metallurgy and machinery was quite good, but it was blurred by a significant decline in food and pharmaceuticals output. The recovery in mining is continuing, prompted by good demand for iron ore. We expect industrial output to increase around 4% y/y in 2021 (vs. a 4.5% y/y decline in 2020).”
Manufacturing output surged 6.3% y/y in May (after an 18.0% y/y surge in April). In particular, the output in metallurgy slowed to 12.2% y/y growth (from 29.1% y/y jump in April), machinery output advanced 28.5% y/y (vs. 41.0% y/y in April). At the same time, food production dropped 13.3% y/y, pharmaceuticals declined 11.9% y/y, coke and oil production slid 0.6% y/y.
Mining sector output accelerated to 8.0% y/y growth (from 6.9% y/y growth in April). In particular, coal production surged 60.9% y/y and iron ore production advanced 11.6% y/y. Meanwhile, oil and gas production declined 3.3% y/y.
The supply of electricity & natural gas declined by 3.5% y/y (vs. 4.5% y/y growth in April).
Regionally, the highest industrial growth in May was observed in Volyn (24.5% y/y%), Mykolayiv (22.9% y/y) and Dnipropetrovsk (20.7% y/y). Six out of 25 regions posted a decline in industrial output. It dropped the most in Ukraine-controlled Luhansk (-40.7% y/y), Kirovohrad (-19.6% y/y) and Kherson (-14.3% y/y) regions.