Ukraine’s real GDP dropped 2.6-2.8% y/y in January

Ukraine’s real GDP dropped 2.6-2.8% y/y in January
Ukraine’s real GDP dropped 2.6-2.8% y/y in January but the economy should grow about 4% this year / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews March 11, 2021

Ukraine’s real GDP dropped 2.6-2.8% year on year in January, according to estimates published on March 10 by the Ministry of Economic Development.

The estimates are based on the General Production Index (GPI), which takes into account manufacturing results during the period.

“January’s GDP estimate is discouraging. The comparative base of January 2021 was low (-0.5% y/y), so Ukraine’s output is still at its lows. Poor economic results in January might be partially attributed to the quarantine restrictions on January 8-24. However, the scale of the latest nation-wide quarantine was nothing to compare with the one in March-May 2020, when the economic activity was practically paralysed given the shutdown of the public transportation and many businesses,” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note.

In January, GPI dropped 4.0% y/y vs. its 2.5% y/y decline in January 2020, the ministry estimated. The negative trend was observed in industry, construction, agriculture and transportation. These four sectors contributed the most to the GDP decline in January.

Given a weak January result, Ukraine’s GDP in 1Q21 is likely to be in decline. Concorde Capital forecasts Ukraine’s GDP to rise by 4.1% y/y in 2021.

 

Data

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