Ukraine celebrates as revered Azovstal soldiers freed in largest POW swap

Dominic Culverwell in Berlin September 23, 2022

Nearly 200 Azovstal soldiers were freed in the war’s largest prisoner swap on September 21. In exchange, Kyiv has given Moscow the Ukrainian oligarch and pro-Kremlin politician Viktor Medvedchuk and 55 Russian POWs.

MOSCOW BLOG: Panic and protests in Russia, but not at mass demonstration tipping point yet

Ben Aris in Berlin September 22, 2022

Panic swept Russia after President Vladimir Putin announced mass mobilisation on September 21, with tens of thousands making for border to escape conscription into the Russian army. By the evening small protests broke out across the country.

Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan warn citizens not to sign up to fight for Russia in Ukraine

bne IntelIiNews September 22, 2022

Warnings issued after opening of Moscow military recruitment centre for foreign citizens amid Putin’s announcement of partial mobilisation.

Russia wants to 'erase' Ukraine from the map, Biden tells UN

Dominic Culverwell in Berlin September 21, 2022

US President Joe Biden said the US is working with its allies and partners to deter attacks against Nato and to “hold Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes”.

ING: Energy price caps are appealing, but are not without risks

Gerben Hieminga of ING, Nadège Tillier of ING September 21, 2022

On 14 September 2022, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced in her State of the Union speech a set of proposals to mitigate the impact of high energy prices.

MOSCOW BLOG: Putin ups the ante with partial mobilisation

Ben Aris September 21, 2022

The decision was an extreme one and carries real political risks. Most Russian back the war, but only passively.

Putin escalates war in Ukraine with partial mobilisation, nuclear threat

bne IntelliNews September 21, 2022

Putin says he will use "all the means at our disposal" to defend Russia, as he issues mobilisation order to call up 300,000 men from country's military reserves.

Russia to hold referendum in Luhansk and Donetsk, paving the way for possible annexation

bne IntelliNews September 20, 2022

The two Russian-controlled Donbas regions announced on September 20 that they will hold a snap referendum next week to ask residents if they want to join the Russian Federation.

NEMETHY: The dawn of a new era: more expensive energy and wages?

Les Nemethy September 20, 2022

Psychologists say that the human brain suffers from dozens of different biases, perhaps one of the most important of these being “recency bias”. We tend to project the past into the future and Putin's war has radically changed that future.

Zelinskiy renews call for Russia to be named a 'terrorist state' after Izyum massacre

Dominic Culverwell in Berlin September 19, 2022

The exhumation of hundreds of corpses in Izyum continues “non-stop”, announced the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.

Nuclear power's share dropped to record low in OECD, but solar jumped to record highs thanks to hot summer

bne IntelliNews September 16, 2022

Germany’s decision to take its nuclear power plants offline, coupled with production problems with France’s NPPs, saw the share of nuclear power in the OECD countries year to date fall to its lowest level ever, but solar boomed.

LONG READ: Can Europe keep the lights on this winter?

Ben Aris in Berlin September 15, 2022

Europe faces a major energy crisis this winter that will test the continent’s power supply systems to the limit. The EU wants to reach zero emissions by 2050, but power plant decommissioning has exposed the bloc to Russian gas blackmail.

INTERVIEW: "We are focused on supporting Ukrainian businesses and government needs" – Dimitar Bogov, EBRD

Dominic Culverwell in Kyiv September 14, 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has devastated the country, causing billions of dollars worth of damage to infrastructure, houses and industry. Kyiv and its international allies have discussed a “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine at several key events.

Commodity prices fall across the board as the market adjusts to the sanctions realities

Ben Aris in Berlin September 14, 2022

The war in Ukraine will go into its eighth month next week and commodity prices are coming off their record-breaking highs as the market adjusts to the new realities.

GAV DON: Ukrainian offensive takes territory, but moves the political landscape more

Gav Don in Edinburgh September 13, 2022

While the territory captured has little strategic importance, the 2,000 square kilometres taken will massively energise and encourage Ukraine’s will to resist, and the will to pay for Ukraine’s resistance within the Nato alliance.

Russians routed in Ukraine, but is Putin in danger of losing power?

Ben Aris in Berlin September 12, 2022

Exactly 200 days after Russia invaded Ukraine, the defenders of the country managed to pull off a stunning rout of Russia’s forces, retaking an estimated 3,000 square kilometres of territory right up to the Russian border.

Ukraine continues fierce counter-offensive in the East but Russia strikes major thermal power plant

Dominic Culverwell in Kyiv September 12, 2022

Over the weekend, Ukraine continued its fierce counter-offensive on the eastern front, which saw Russian lines crumble in Kharkiv. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have retaken over 3,000 square km since the start of September.

GUSTAFSON: Russian oil exports – are sanctions working?

Professor Thane Gustafson in Washington September 11, 2022

Six months after the beginning of the Russian invasion, the “Devil’s Dance” of Western sanctions and Russian oil exports and revenues has barely begun. The main contest still lies ahead.

IMF: How food and energy are driving the global inflation surge

Philip Barrett economist for the IMF September 11, 2022

Global inflation was generally moderating when the pandemic began, and the downward trend continued into the early months of the crisis. But surging prices since late 2020 have pushed inflation higher than in all of the last five years combined.

ING: Back to the 80s? What soaring inflation, US rate hikes and a stronger dollar mean for EM sovereign debt

James Wilson sovereign EM strategist at ING September 11, 2022

Soaring inflation, rate hikes and a stronger dollar are reminiscent of the early 1980s – a decade that brought a wave of EM sovereign debt crises. This year has already seen Sri Lanka default, hit by an external liquidity crisis.