Ukrainian retail sales increased 7.5% y/y in the first quarter of 2021 accelerating from a 4.6%% y/y growth in 2M21, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on April 20. In March, retail sales advanced 11.8% y/y or 13.1% m/m.
In the first quarter of 2021, retail growth was observed across Ukraine. The highest growth occurred in Kyiv (14.6.9% y/y), Chernivtsi (13.7% y/y) and Vinnytsya (12.5% y/y) regions. The slowest growth rates were in Kirovohrad (0.2% y/y), and Cherkasy (1.1% y/y) and Rivne (1.6% y/y) regions.
Retail picked up significantly in March, compensating for the quite weak results in the first two months of the year. In the second quarter of 2021, retail is likely to show quite high growth given the low comparative base of the previous year.
“We expect consumer demand to stay strong in 2021, allowing retail sales to accelerate to 10% y/y (vs. 8.4% y/y growth in 2020),” Concorde Capital said in a note.