COVID-19 and Trump’s indifference helped human rights abusers in 2020
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FPRI BMB Ukraine: Most Ukrainians are optimistic about 2021 – poll
OUTLOOK 2021 Lithuania
EBRD says loan to Estonia’s controversial Porto Franco project was never disbursed
Estonian premier quits after Tallinn development scandal
Top Centre Party official suspected of corruption in Tallinn real estate scandal
Czech Pirates and Mayors approve final coalition agreement for 2021 elections
OUTLOOK 2021 Czechia
BRICKS & MORTAR: Rosier future beckons for CEE retailers after year of change and disruption
Romanian tech entrepreneurs expand into banking sector
OUTLOOK 2021 Hungary
Hungarian government remains silent after Capitol riots
Storming parliaments: New Europe's greatest hits
World Bank expects modest recovery for Europe and Central Asia in 2021
FDI inflows to CEE down 58% in 1H20 but rebound expected
OUTLOOK 2021 Slovakia
Slovakia to invest €1.2bn in digitisation
BALKAN BLOG: The controversial recipe for building up Albania
Heavy flooding causes chaos in parts of Southeast Europe
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OUTLOOK 2021 Albania
Kyiv accuses Bosnian President Dodik of lying about icon gifted to Russian foreign minister
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Sofia-based LAUNCHub Ventures holds first close of new fund on €44mn
ING THINK: Growth in the Balkans: from zero to hero again?
OUTLOOK 2020 Bulgaria
Labour demand down 28% y/y in Croatia in 2020
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OUTLOOK 2021 Kosovo
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Moldova’s PM resigns to prepare the ground for early elections
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OUTLOOK 2021 Montenegro
Vast tide of floating waste threatens Balkan hydropower plants
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OUTLOOK 2021 North Macedonia
Transparency International warns of high corruption risk in CEE defence sectors
Moldova fears flooding from Ukraine's planned Dniester hydropower plants
Romania’s industrial recovery paused in November
OUTLOOK 2021 Serbia
Slovenia’s government to release funds to news agency STA after EU pressure
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Akbank takes over Istanbul's Palladium Atasehir shopping mall
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COMMENT: Record high debt levels will slow post-coronavirus recovery, threaten some countries' financial stability, says IIF
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OUTLOOK 2021 Georgia
Georgia’s political kingpin Bidzina Ivanishvili quits politics
Modern-day “Robin Hood” inspires Georgians drowning in debt
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TEHRAN BLOG: Who’s more credible? Johnson backing Trump’s Nobel chances or Iran applauding arrest warrant for US president?
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OUTLOOK 2021 Kyrgyzstan
Mongolia's winter dzud set to be one of most extreme on record says Red Cross
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Mongolia in lockdown after suffering first local coronavirus transmissions
OUTLOOK 2021 Tajikistan
China business briefing: Not happy with Kyrgyzstan
OUTLOOK 2021 Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan: How the Grinch stole New Year
Turkmenistan: The dammed united
COMMENT: Uzbekistan is being transformed, but where are the democratic reforms?
OUTLOOK 2021 Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan’s Makro positions itself for growth in a more competitive market
Download the pdf version
Poland’s incumbent President Andrzej Duda and his rival the centre-right mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski are consistently neck-and-neck in the polls six days ahead of the crucial election on July 12.
Five recent polls – by renowned pollsters Ipsos, Indicator, Kantar, Estymator, and Ibris – all showed the difference between Duda and Trzaskowski at just 1pp-1.8pp with the president inching ahead of his rival in two polls. The three other polls point to Trzaskowski.
With differences being so small, crucial to the eventual result of the election will be the mobilisation of voters of either candidate, the number of new voters going to the polling station on Sunday and exactly how many far-right voters will vote and for whom.
The far-right candidate Krzysztof Bosak came as high as in the fourth place in the first round of the election on June 28, scooping over 1.3mn votes. That has since prompted Duda and Trzaskowski to appeal to Bosak’s supporters to vote.
Both contenders have been campaigning heavily in small Polish towns that many observers say will also be crucial to the election’s outcome. At his rallies, Duda is underlining the social spending of the Law and Justice government, of which he is a staunch ally, as well as threats to Poland’s traditional family model that Trzaskowski will allegedly bring about.
For his part, Trzaskowski has been warning against too much power in the hands of one camp, has vowed to keep PiS’s social spending – topped up with more money if he becomes president – and pledged to end divisions that have ripped Poland as a result of PiS’s rule.
The divisions indeed run so deep that they have effectively prevented a live TV debate between Duda and Trzaskowski. Trzaskowski refused to take part in a debate hosted by state-owned broadcaster TVP, which PiS has turned into a government mouthpiece.
Instead, Trzaskowski will hold a large presser with a number of media – including those supporting Duda. Both “debates” will take place on the evening of July 6.
The election is crucial for the PiS-led ruling camp, as Duda is the guarantor of the government’s unchallenged rule until the next general vote in 2023. As an opposition president, Trzaskowski is expected to be highly contrarian, a strategy that could wear PiS out as it does not have a majority in the parliament to overrun presidential vetoes. A snap election cannot be ruled in such a scenario.
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