Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) was to all intents and purposes taken by surprise on October 23 after the sudden announcement that its ultra-nationalist coalition partner was abandoning their electoral alliance for the local elections due by next March.

After the news, the embattled Turkish lira (TRY) extended a slump to more than 3% d/d, marking its biggest drop in nearly two months.

Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli made the move after disagreements about an MHP-proposed amnesty that would release around 160,000 prisoners. The party wants a general amnesty that would free prisoners apart from those in certain categories, including members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and those jailed for alleged links to the organisation of cleric Fethullah Gulen, accused by Ankara of orchestrating the failed July 2016 coup attempt. 

Critics say that if made law the amnesty would be to the benefit of ultra-nationalist criminal gangs that have the sympathies of Bahceli.

Erdogan upset Bahceli by recently stating that "we will not be remembered as a government that will pardon drug dealers". 

In parliament on October 23, Bahceli declared that the MHP would now “draw its path by itself only”. However, some analysts expect him to play hardball before cutting a deal to restart the alliance in time for the campaign period before the local elections. The seven-point proposal for the amnesty would have to go before the parliament's Justice Committee before being put to a vote of lawmakers.

Bahceli’s hate-list
The MHP, which has not pushed for any Cabinet positions within the Erdogan administration, seemingly preferring to exercise its power from behind the scenes, outraged media unions in Turkey during the summer when its leader Bahceli published a hate-list of 70 columnists, academics, journalists and polling company managers whom he accused of producing false and malicious statements and incriminating claims against his party. “We will never forget what they have done, what they have written, what they have destroyed,” Bahceli said in an advertisement accompanying the list.

The MHP backed Erdogan and ran a formal alliance with the AKP in the late June snap presidential and parliamentary elections, respectively. Erdogan was re-elected as president by a first-round vote but the AKP lost its majority in parliament and now relies on the MHP to win legislative votes. The MHP confounded expectations in the parliamentary contest, winning around 11% of the vote, twice what many pollsters expected. Analysts warned at the time that its importance to Erdogan in securing votes might give it disproportionate influence.

Parliament’s powers were diminished after the elections four months ago and the post of prime minister was abolished because, following a narrow official victory in a referendum in spring 2017, Turkey moved to make the next presidency an executive presidency with sweeping powers.

Erdogan’s ascent to the post of executive president prompted defeated presidential candidate Muharrem Ince to warn that Turkey was entering a dangerous period of "one-man rule".

The MHP has openly supported Erdogan’s AKP since the failed coup attempt back in 2016.