The rapid disintegration of Bashar al-Assad's control over Syria has shocked observers, with rebels now advancing on Damascus from multiple directions in what appears to be the final chapter of his regime's rule.

As of December 7, opposition forces were approximately 15 kilometres from the capital while simultaneously storming the strategic city of Homs north of Damascus, according to the latest media reports emerging from the country.

The speed of the collapse has been remarkable. In just over a week, a coalition of armed opposition factions has captured roughly 250 cities, towns and villages, more than doubling the territory under their control. The fall of Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, in a mere 24 hours signalled the beginning of what has become a cascading failure of regime defences and mass desertions.  

Most concerning for Assad's survival prospects is the situation in Damascus itself. Rebels have officially announced operations to encircle the capital, with reports indicating they have already entered Daraya, a southern district approximately seven kilometres from the presidential palace.

This district, once a rebel stronghold that was besieged and partially razed by Assad's forces between 2012 and 2016, now symbolises the remarkable reversal of fortune, with videos showing people ripping down Assad statues.

The regime's rapid collapse can be attributed to several critical factors. Syria's economy has been in a shambles, with the Syrian pound having plummeted from SYP1,150 to the dollar in early 2020 to SYP17,500 as of December 4. At least 90% of Syrians now live below the poverty line, despite the regime's profitable involvement in the production of the captagon drug, which generates approximately $2.4bn annually and has become the scourge of both the Near East and Europe.

Assad's traditional supporters are abandoning him in their droves. In Jaramana, a southeastern Damascus suburb with a significant Druze community, residents are already distancing themselves from the regime, with dramatic footage showing them tearing down statues of Assad's father, Hafez al-Assad. This development is particularly significant as it indicates the crumbling of support even in traditionally loyal minority communities.

The military situation is equally dire. Assad's forces are withdrawing from strategic positions across the country, including the historic city of Palmyra in the eastern Homs desert, where local Free Syrian Army fighters are taking control, according to videos coming out from the historic city. The withdrawal extends to Abu Kamal, effectively severing the land connection to the Mediterranean that Iran spent over a decade establishing.

The regime's military apparatus has been hollowed out by years of corruption and organised crime. The drug trade, run by Assad's brother Maher through the elite 4th Division, has infiltrated virtually every corner of the military and loyalist militia network, severely undermining its cohesion and fighting capability and driving away investment from the actual economy.

Iran's IRGC and Russian companies have been the only foreign entities apart from China to look at investing in the country, while more than 7mn Syrians are stuck abroad as refugees. As bne IntelliNews previously reported, around 42%, or 1.25mn, of the 3mn Syrians residing in Turkey are from Aleppo – Syria’s second city, which was seized from the Assad regime in an offensive by militia last week – or Aleppo region and wish to immediately return to their country, Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya has said.

External support has also weakened considerably. Russia's involvement in Ukraine and Iran's focus on regional tensions following October 2023 have diverted attention and resources away from Syria. While both countries, along with Hezbollah, maintained a presence on the front lines when the opposition offensive began on 27 November, they were unable to prevent the Syrian regime forces from descending into disarray.

In contrast, the opposition, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has significantly enhanced its capabilities since 2020. The group has established new specialised units, including the Red Bands special forces and the Thermal Brigade, whose fighters are equipped with the latest night-vision technology believed to be from Turkey. Their Falcons Brigade drone unit has proved particularly effective, having launched hundreds of attacks on regime positions and outperforming its military technology.

Assad's options appear increasingly limited in the face of HTS and its allies. Unlike in 2015, when Russian intervention saved his regime from collapse, with Moscow preoccupied with its war in Ukraine and Hezbollah and Iran out of the picture, there remains little the regime can do.