OUTLOOK 2023: South Caucasus

Robert Anderson in Prague, Cavid Aga in Baku, Mack Tubridy in Tbilisi January 19, 2023

There is a high risk of a renewed outbreak of fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and only a slight chance of a peace deal that settles the status of the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan.

EBRD invests record €13.1bn into its region in 2022

bne IntelliNews January 15, 2023

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development invested a record €13.1bn into its Emerging Europe and Eurasia region in 2022, the bank announced on January 12.

NEMETHY: Key economic and financial drivers to watch in 2023

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors January 10, 2023

There is an old joke that the role of economic forecasters is to make astrologers look good. Forecasting GDP or inflation for the upcoming year with any degree of accuracy is virtually impossible, but there are some scary signs appearing.

Mutual FDI in Eurasia has been dominated by Russia, but war and sanctions make the outlook uncertain

Ben Aris in Berlin January 6, 2023

Mutual FDI stock in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries grew fast until Russia went into recession in 2012, when its GDP growth sank to zero. However, it soon started to recover, with Russia playing the leading role in the region.

Kazakhstan moves uranium exports through Middle Corridor

Joanna Lillis for Eurasianet January 4, 2023

Kazatomprom said it was avoiding routes across Russia due to sanctions on the country.

PANNIER: How Putin may have leant on Turkmenistan to spike gas-for-Europe plan

Bruce Pannier December 19, 2022

President Berdimuhamedov may have put Turkish counterpart Erdogan’s nose out of joint by shelving pipeline interconnector proposal.

Start of a new super cycle – fat and flat for 2023?

Ben Aris in Berlin December 15, 2022

The global economy has been through some enormous changes in recent years, leading investors and analysts to believe we are at the start of a new high-inflation, lower-growth super-cycle that could last for as long as a decade.

IMF: Global food prices to remain elevated amid war, costly energy, La Niña.

Ervin Prifti . December 14, 2022

Interest rate hikes have eased price pressures, but the weather, war and material costs could keep food prices elevated for longer,

Analysts say Turkmenistan told US diplomats ‘it’s not interested’ in Caspian gas-to-Europe connector project, wants major pipeline

Will Conroy in Prague December 13, 2022

Ashgabat said to be signalling that “it won’t get out of bed for anything less”.

IMF: Riding the global debt rollercoaster

Vitor Gaspar Paulo Medas and Roberto Perrelli for the IMF December 13, 2022

Global debt remained above pre-pandemic levels in 2021 even after posting its steepest decline in 70 years, underscoring the challenges for policymakers.

NEMETHY: The case for gold today – again

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors December 12, 2022

In April 2021 gold was sitting around a price of $1,700; as of December 10, 2022 it is now approaching $1,800. Relative to just about every other asset class, this is not a bad performance.

Lukashenko’s post-Soviet allies in 2022

bne IntelliNews December 11, 2022

For Lukashenko, the pursuit of regional political stability is incompatible with having to show strong allegiance to his larger regional allies’ geopolitical goals. His unpredictability will continue to increase tensions in the post-Soviet space.

Roddy Scott Foundation providing education to the children of war-torn Pankisi Gorge

Ben Aris in Berlin December 6, 2022

Twenty years ago the young freelance photojournalist Roddy Scott was killed by Russian forces in the Pankisi gorge in Georgia, a refuge for terrorists and a transit point into neighbouring Chechnya during the war there.

Georgia’s ex-president Saakashvili “poisoned”, claims doctor

Mack Tubridy in Tbilisi December 6, 2022

US-based toxicologist says that "testing has revealed the presence of heavy metals" in former president's body.

Moldova's president "deeply concerned" by Saakashvili’s deteriorating health

Mack Tubridy in Tbilisi December 5, 2022

Former president remains in a detention that one of his lawyers has called a "death sentence".

Moldova attends first Nato summit but says membership is not an option

Iulian Ernst in Bucharest December 1, 2022

Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu takes care not to provoke Russia, despite Nato promises of support for Moldova.

War and wine: how rattled economies in Ukraine and Russia are pushing Georgian winemakers to pivot to new markets

Mack Tubridy in Tbilisi November 30, 2022

Traditional export markets for Georgian wine are reeling due to the war in Ukraine, deepening ongoing trends of market diversification among winemakers in the South Caucasian country.

Georgian parliament sends bill to promote de-oligarchisation to Venice Commission for review

Mack Tubridy in Tbilisi November 29, 2022

The Georgian opposition believes that the bill will be used to punish opposition financiers and to protect the interests of Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili.

EBRD warns of risk of 'zombification'

Robert Anderson in London November 22, 2022

Development bank recommends countries should now gradually dial down help to vulnerable companies, so they can either learn to adapt to the new climate of higher interest rates or exit the market by going into insolvency.

Asia-to-Europe Digital Silk Way investors to lay ‘internet corridor’ across bottom of Caspian Sea

Aida Kadyrzhanova in Almaty November 17, 2022

Fibre-optic lines crucial part of project set to benefit up to 1.8bn people from Frankfurt to Mumbai.