There is an old joke that the role of economic forecasters is to make astrologers look good. Forecasting GDP or inflation for the upcoming year with any degree of accuracy is virtually impossible, but there are some scary signs appearing.
World coal consumption reached a new high in 2022 before levelling out in 2023 and 2024, with rising usage in emerging Asian countries cancelling out falling demand in advanced economies.
In December the investment community took notice of Jack Dorsey’s most recent moves in Africa when his tech conglomerate Block, Inc. co-led a $2mn investment round into Gridless, a bitcoin mining company in Africa.
The world is set to see global GDP plummet by a catastrophic 15% by 2050 if current emissions trends are not reined in and global warming reaches 2.2°C by 2050.
The global economy has been through some enormous changes in recent years, leading investors and analysts to believe we are at the start of a new high-inflation, lower-growth super-cycle that could last for as long as a decade.
Interest rate hikes have eased price pressures, but the weather, war and material costs could keep food prices elevated for longer,
Global debt remained above pre-pandemic levels in 2021 even after posting its steepest decline in 70 years, underscoring the challenges for policymakers.
In April 2021 gold was sitting around a price of $1,700; as of December 10, 2022 it is now approaching $1,800. Relative to just about every other asset class, this is not a bad performance.
Solar is set to overtake coal as the world’s leading source of power supply by early 2025, the IEA said
The polycrisis has eased off and the US Fed signalled that it will slow rate hikes as inflation appears to be peaking. That is good news for EM markets and investors have been buying high yielding debt as default fears abate.
COP finished two days late on November 20 without any new agreements on climate change targets or emissions reductions, although a deal was hammered out to set up an as yet uncosted loss and damage fund.
African nations are lobbying to be allowed to use their natural gas reserves to lift up to 600mn people out of energy poverty and to connect them to modern electricity supplies.
The UN has identified greenwashing by business and finance as the biggest danger facing the race to net zero, urging them to avoid a toxic cover-up and to ensure that any climate pledges they keep are in line with the 1.5-degree targets.
Emissions from future LNG projects and could use up 10% of the remaining global carbon budget for 1.5˚C warming by 2050.
OPEC says Africa is on track to add 1.2mn barrels per day (bpd) of primary refining capacity in the medium term, with Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery accounting for more than half of the total.