There is an old joke that the role of economic forecasters is to make astrologers look good. Forecasting GDP or inflation for the upcoming year with any degree of accuracy is virtually impossible, but there are some scary signs appearing.
In December the investment community took notice of Jack Dorsey’s most recent moves in Africa when his tech conglomerate Block, Inc. co-led a $2mn investment round into Gridless, a bitcoin mining company in Africa.
The global economy has been through some enormous changes in recent years, leading investors and analysts to believe we are at the start of a new high-inflation, lower-growth super-cycle that could last for as long as a decade.
Interest rate hikes have eased price pressures, but the weather, war and material costs could keep food prices elevated for longer,
Global debt remained above pre-pandemic levels in 2021 even after posting its steepest decline in 70 years, underscoring the challenges for policymakers.
In April 2021 gold was sitting around a price of $1,700; as of December 10, 2022 it is now approaching $1,800. Relative to just about every other asset class, this is not a bad performance.
On October 29, Russia pulled out of the landmark “Black Sea Initiative” grain deal, brokered by the UN and Turkey last July, only to rejoin a few days later. However, the deal is set to expire soon, and its extension is uncertain.