Turkey
Pandemic knocked growth momentum out of Turkish manufacturing March PMI shows
Sector pushed back into contraction in “bitter blow” to recovering firms. Output and new orders slowed sharply. Lira weakness, supply shortages pushing up input prices.
ISTANBUL BLOG: Nagging anxiety resurfaces in Turkey as food prices take off
Opposition research shows worrying price movements in economy roiled by pandemic. Issues both old and new now combining, prompting warnings of possible supply scarcities ahead.
Calls grow in Turkey for COVID-19 “helicopter money” and countrywide lockdown
Government coffers seen as empty after currency crisis fight. “Fearful of joining the army of unemployed, many workers have had no choice but to brave the virus danger,” says economist.
Analysts ask if Turkey’s set to ‘call Fed’ as lira sinks on pandemic-shaken markets
Lots of focus on central bank’s dwindling FX reserves. Erdogan urges citizens to “keep the wheels turning”. Officials bring in more credit-fuelling.
TURKEY INSIGHT: Peering into the forex hole
Hard currency reserves back in focus. Net portfolio outflows since December 20 stacked up to $6bn.
Turkish business presses Erdogan to beef up COVID-19 economic support and consider strict lockdown
With academics warning Turkey may face pandemic “catastrophe”, local corporate titans suggest it might be better for country to bite bullet and go for short, sharp shock rather than long, drawn-out battle.
Small countries in Balkans and South Caucasus most exposed to tourism industry collapse
No one knows if there will be a summer tourism season at all in 2020, which is bad news for the countries that generate around a quarter of their GDP from the sector.
IIF forecasts a contraction of -1.4% in CEE, -1.3% in Russia, but Turkish growth remains in the black in 2020
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) released updated forecasts for economic growth this year for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries that show a sharp slowdown in 2020 and all except Turkey will return negative results.
Is the pace of outflows from EMs starting to slow?
Equity and bond markets have been rocked by record volumes of outflows since the end of February in one of the biggest sell offs ever, but the pace of selling seems to be slowing in the last few days, said the Institute of International Finance (IIF)
Latest data show no progress resolving Turkish real sector’s foreign debt woe
Burden seen as Turkey’s biggest headache in wake of currency crisis. Figures come amid pandemic as analysts say idea EMs will face ‘sudden stop’ in capital flows is starting to gain traction.
Capital Economics slashes CEE growth forecasts for 2020 to -2% y/y
Economic consultancy Capital Economics has slashed its growth forecast for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to a 2% y/y contractions from the previous 2.3% expansion in 2020, as a result of the coronavirus.
Harvard academic claims coronavirus situation “out of control” in Turkey
“If the necessary measures are not taken, Turkey will be like Italy or Spain, where the daily death toll is in the hundreds,” says Turkish professor.
TURKEY INSIGHT: How bad a pandemic hit to GDP must country brace for?
Finance minister accused of just “dropping in from outer space” for sticking to his targets. Lira continues to crumble as analysts slash growth forecasts.
Crippling pandemic will cause Q2 GDP collapse of 17.2% in Turkey says JPMorgan
Investment bank concludes country can expect worst annualised growth shrinkage of any emerging market. But finance minister rejects idea that economic carnage is on horizon.
ISTANBUL BLOG: There may be no stopping the coronavirus from snowballing in Turkey
Science Council member says country has lost its chance to be a “Singapore” or a “Hong Kong” and needs to spend all its available energy on not becoming an “Italy”.
Turkey introduces TRY100bn package to help economy hit by virus
Debt payments postponed, tax burdens cut and aviation and tourism supported. On same day, Toyota Turkey announces production suspension.
Turkey brings in surprise 100bp rate cut and additional cheaper liquidity in coronavirus fight
Analyst sees set of announced measures as “stronger than” a cut in borrowing costs. Lira, however, is at its weakest since currency crisis and strategists see it as set to come under even more pressure.
Turkey detains 19 for “unfounded and provocative” comments over officials’ coronavirus response
Country was last major economy to report an infection. Veracity of its testing and declaring of scale of pandemic’s impact on Turks under scrutiny.
Number of coronavirus cases in Turkish metropolis “has exploded”
Medical Association head makes claim as Erdogan administration remains under pressure to explain how Turkey can have so few recorded infections.
EBRD makes €1bn available as emergency measure to fight coronavirus impact
The EBRD has unveiled an emergency €1bn “Solidarity Package” to help companies deal with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.