Data
Stock of bank loans in Romania grows 8.8% y/y in April
Growth lost momentum from March, but hike in foreign currency loans prompted central bank warning.
Turkey holds rates as economy walks financial precipice ahead of runoff election
As lira trades just below 20/$ in the interbank market, rate at the Istanbul Grand Bazaar hovers in the 21s.
Southeast Europe tourism concentrated in peak summer months despite efforts to diversify
Seasonal pattern was most pronounced in Croatia, with 60% of tourist nights spent in July and August.
Poland’s retail sales repeat 7.3% y/y contraction rate in April
Retail sector set to enter a protracted recession, driven by inflation eating into Poles’ real incomes and the exorbitant cost of mortgage repayments due to high interest rates.
Remittances to North Macedonia reach historic high
Central bank governor says remittances rebounded to €2.4bn in 2022 after a dip during the pandemic.
Construction activity in Romania pushed up by civil engineering in Q1
Construction activity measured by the construction works index in Romania increased by 12.7% y/y in Q1.
Polish PPI inflation dwindles to 6.8% y/y in April
Inflationary pressures are easing in the wake of the economic slowdown.
Moldova’s non-energy foreign trade gap surges by 58% in Q1
Moldova’s statistics office reported that the country’s overall trade gap increased by 26% year on year to $1.23bn.
Flat Polish GDP growth in Q1 marks passing of downturn’s low point
Adjusted quarterly growth showed a huge rebound of 3.9% in the first quarter which more than compensated for the fall of 2.3% q/q in October-December.
Hungary remains in recession as economy contracts 0.2 q/q in Q1
Most Hungarian analysts believe that GDP will grow 0.5-1% this year, which is below the government’s 1.5% target.
Russia’s inflation down to 2.3% in April
Annual consumer price inflation in April 2023 in Russia declined further to 2.3% year on year after 3.5% y/y seen in March, posting the lowest CPI since February 2018, according to the latest data from RosStat statistics agency.
Polish CPI growth eases to 14.7% y/y in April but expected to remain high until year-end
The index’s decrease since February has been largely due to the high reference base from last year and falling prices in the energy sector.
Vehicle industry remains driver of Hungary’s industrial performance
Hungary’s industrial production fell 4.1% y/y in March, and by 4% when adjusted for working days.
Moldova slashes refinancing rate by 4pp in line with fall in inflation
The step was the fourth rate cut since December brings policy rate down to 10%, from 21.5% in September 2022.
Ukraine's inflation dropped to 17.6% y/y in April
Annual inflation in Ukraine dropped to 17.6% in April, down from 21.3% in March, Interfax Ukraine reported on May 10.
__1683839701.png)
Russian budget deficit passes full-year target in 4M23 to RUB3.4 trillion, but the Ministry of Finance won’t be in trouble this year
Russia’s budget deficit expanded further to RUB3.424 trillion ($45bn) in January-April, sailing past the target for the full year of RUB2.9 trillion, the Finance Ministry reported on May 10, but the monthly deficits are already moderating.
Bank of Serbia keeps key rate at 6%
Central bank says decision reflects easing of cost-push pressures from the international environment and the stabilisation of global supply chains.
Albanian lek reaches new record high against the euro
Albania’s currency, the lek, continued its rise against the euro in the first five months of 2023, reaching new highs against the European single currency.
Romania’s central bank keeps refinancing rate at 7% but closely watching government’s actions
Decision balances robust economic growth in Q1 with rising uncertainty related to fiscal policy and use of Resilience Facility.
Romania’s trade gap shrinks in Q1 on lower natural gas imports
Fall in gas imports masks worrying hike in food imports and persistent large trade deficit for chemicals.
