COMMENT: Southeast Europe the growth star in CEE banking, but the profit pool is elsewhere

Gunter Deuber of Raiffeisen Research in Vienna July 16, 2019

The core message for bankers and investors active in the CEE region should be: close to old records, potential for more but watch out for late cycle phenomena.

Polish inflation accelerates to 2.6% y/y in June

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw July 16, 2019

Inflation is expected to moderate in the second half of the year with the Polish Monetary Policy Council to remain dovish.

Central European economies decouple from Eurozone slowdown

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow July 9, 2019

Economists from wiiw have revised upwards their forecasts for Central and Southeast European economies as wage-driven growth has stopped them from following the eurozone into a slowdown.

Huawei pledges up to €705mn in Polish investments

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw July 9, 2019

The pledge appears to have come to ease the tension between Huawei and the Polish government after an employee of the company and a former Polish security official were arrested earlier this year on espionage charges.

Central, Eastern and Southeast European sovereigns to return to debt markets on large scale in 2020, Raiffeisen says

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow July 9, 2019

Governments of Central and Southeast Europe have already secured most of the funding they need for this year, but with more obligations maturing in 2020 they are expected to return to the markets on a large scale next year

Poland’s unemployment rate drops to 28-year low of 5.3%

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw July 5, 2019

Record-low rate results in fast-growing wages and buoyed consumer confidence, making household consumption a key driver of economic growth.

Rainbow flag flies over CEE, but attitudes to LGBT vary vastly

Ben Aris in Berlin July 4, 2019

North Macedonia held its first ever gay pride march on June 29 with up to 1,000 people attending the event. There were pride marches in nearly all the CEE countries but the experience in each country is vastly different.

BRICKS & MORTAR: Romania, Poland top destinations for new retail parks in CEE

bne IntelliNews July 4, 2019

The retail park market is still in its infancy in CEE compared to Western Europe, says a report from Cushman & Wakefield, leaving plenty of room for catch-up growth, especially in smaller cities.

Poland’s PMI falls to a four-month low in June

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw July 1, 2019

The indicator’s fall attests to the continuing deterioration of business conditions at Polish manufacturers, said IHS Markit which compiles the index — though industrial growth remained strong at the start of the year.

Seven New Europe members of PACE walk out in protest against Russia’s readmission

Ben Aris in Berlin June 27, 2019

The decision has split the Council down the middle. Almost all of the western European members voted overwhelming to allow Russia back in. However, countries close to the Russian border voted against readmission.

Poland’s Supreme Court reform breaches EU law, the bloc’s top court rules

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw June 25, 2019

Poland dropped the contested changes in December, but the European Commission pressed on with the case to enshrine in the EU’s legal order that any member state’s tinkering with the independence of the judiciary must be contained.

Polish retail sales ease y/y growth in May after Easter surge

bne IntelliNews June 24, 2019

The slowdown was expected after sales spiked the previous month because of Easter but still is in line with Polish households’ general inclination towards increased consumption.

Polish industrial production eases growth rate to still solid 7.7% y/y in May

bne IntelliNews June 24, 2019

The headline figure is 1.5pp below the unadjusted figure recorded the preceding month but still attests to the Polish industrial sector’s stubbornness to give in to negative trends in the external environment.

CEE states block EU ambitions to go carbon neutral by 2050

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw June 21, 2019

A group of Eastern European member states said no to a carbon neutrality goal without guarantees that the cost of reducing emissions is offset to lessen the impact of the transition on their economies.

Demographic “tipping point” imminent for CEE labour markets

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow June 17, 2019

The ‘tipping point’ at which labour demand will become equal to labour supply is just two years away in the Czech Republic, Lithuania and Poland, says a new study from wiiw.

Poland’s inflation reaches 2.4% y/y in May

bne IntelliNews June 17, 2019

Inflation is expected remain at around 2.4%-2.5% y/y in June before easing to 2%-2.5% in the second half of the year, despite core inflation accelerating.

CEE monthly bond wrap: bond issues in CEE sharply down, Russia sharply up

Ben Aris in Berlin June 17, 2019

Bond issues in Central and Eastern Europe in May were down steeply on previous years to a total of $3.1bn from six issues, but they were up in Russia and the CIS to $1.1bn from four issues, albeit from a low base.