Opinion
COMMENT: Russia coal mine explosion also highlights environmental tragedy
A methane explosion killed 52 people at a coal mine in Siberia on November 25 – the worst accident in a decade. But coal mine methane has a profound impact on the environment too. But fixing the problem could generate hundreds of millions of dollars.
FPRI BMB Ukraine: 20 step plan to de-oligarchize Ukraine
On November 24, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers approved a 20-step plan outlining measures for implementing the “law on oligarchs” and the strategy for the development of the justice system in 2022–2023.
NEMETHY: The economic vulnerability of Central European economies
The global economy may be characterized as either “everything booms”, where virtually all asset prices have rapidly exploded in value, or steeply rising indebtedness. Which countries in CEE are most exposed to the risk of inevitable rate hikes?
HOMANS: Putin’s Choice – continue invading Ukraine or keep doing what he’s been doing?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that he believes Ukrainians and Russians are “one people,” and wants Ukraine to return to the Russkiy Mir. Will he achieve his objective by invading or just wear Ukraine down?
COMMENT: The Romanian political crisis during the pandemic
On November 25 one of Romania’s most controversial and unnecessarily prolonged political crises, with profound economic and social implications, came to an end.
ING: Polish retail sales boosted by low base
Yearly retail sales in Poland have recovered after a soft third quarter. It's no surprise, given that this time last year the country was hit by COVID lockdowns.
Competitors are motivation, lockdowns are an opportunity
As huge swathes of the global population went into lockdown, many retailers faced heavy losses. The trends developing before the pandemic picked up pace, with online shopping and sustainable manufacturing gaining traction.
COMMENT: Let’s admit it: the hybrid war concept is useless
Watching with dismay the expert coverage of the Belarus-Polish migrant crisis, it occurred to me that we need to retire the hybrid war concept, at least from news coverage. It’s become unhelpful at best and dangerous at worst.
FPRI BMB Ukraine: Ukraine facing a potential energy crisis this winter
The geopolitical conflict over energy, particularly gas with the impending (though temporarily suspended) certification of Nord Stream 2, is spilling over into the coal and electricity sector, putting Ukraine on the verge of a potential energy crisis
ING: Poland’s current account balance is deteriorating quickly
Compared to 2020, Poland’s current account balance is set to deteriorate by an equivalent of about 4.5% of GDP in 2021.
COMMENT: Talk of war increases long-standing tensions between Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Nato
International headlines featured the word “war” with alarming frequency in recent days. It came in different contexts, but inevitably involved Russia as a key party. That makes it all the more alarming because Russia is not just any other country
HOMANS: Ukraine – a cryptocurrency hub?
There was an article in New York Times this month, entitled “The Crypto Capital of the World – It Has to be Somewhere. Why Not Ukraine?” Will that work?
STOLYPIN: The West’s response to Lukashenko’s migrant gambit might seal Belarus’ fate
Moscow’s problem is that having thrown their weight behind Lukashenko, they are stuck with him. It can't control the dictator but nor does it want to take over Belarus.
ING: Russia’s current account stabilises despite higher oil prices
The $12.3bn current account in October was big, but no bigger than the 3Q21 average, despite tighter energy markets. Exports are likely to catch up with it in November-December, but so will imports and FX purchases.
ING: Sticky inflation risks force CEE central bankers to keep on hiking rates
Disruptions in global value chains continue to weigh on Central and Eastern Europe, and the Delta variant is blurring the outlook for the fourth quarter. Record high inflation can no longer be written off as temporary as rates rise across CEE.
ING: Higher Romanian inflation points to more rate hikes
We anticipated an upside surprise, but the number came in even higher than expected. October inflation reached 7.9% versus our 7.8% estimate. While energy is still to blame, it is clear that price increases have become more generalised.
ING: No brake on the Hungarian inflation train
Despite heightened expectations, October inflation was a significant upside surprise. Second-round effects are here as core inflation also jumped, heralding the need for stronger tightening.
FPRI BMB Ukraine Zelenskiy goes to COP26 in Glasgow
Participating in the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow on November 1-2, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy presented new emission reduction goals and warned of “two eco-bombs in the centre of Europe: Crimea and Donbas.
COMMENT: Bosnia faces its most profound post-war crisis
Threats to withdraw Bosnian Serbs from state institutions threaten to plunge the country into a deep and prolonged constitutional and security crisis.
FPRI BMB Ukraine: Cabinet reshuffle under way
A Cabinet reshuffle is underway in Kyiv. Rumours of the impending reorganisation gained traction last week after Servant of the People faction head Davyd Arakhamia said that at least four personnel changes were under consideration.
