Opinion
CENUSA: Bringing Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia closer to the EU: a multi-speed progress.
"If the EU institutions do not ensure that the progress achieved by Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia [is] fully impartial, they will be doing them a disservice. Their path towards Europeanisation must not be subjectivised or romanticised."
NEMETHY: How the Battle for Ukraine may change Europe
More and more signs point to a new major Russian initiative to take Ukraine in the spring, including a possible attack on Kyiv. How could a major Russian offensive or a Russian victory in Ukraine challenge Europe?
COMMENT: The new Cold War will be different, and not only because of China
Mercantilism is also replacing globalisation, and the US has a declining interest in European affairs.
PANNIER: Uzbeks, Kyrgyz cooperating to level unthinkable 10 years ago
Gone is the era when Uzbekistan’s late president Islam Karimov was walling off his country from its immediate neighbours.
PANNIER: A very Turkmen coup
Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov returns as head of state, albeit with a different title. The word is, son and president Serdar has proved a bad negotiator.
OPINION: Bulgaria sets itself a tough task with Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline revival
Bulgaria urgently needs non-Russian crude for its Black Sea refinery, but there are multiple challenges to reviving the Burgas-Alexandroupolis project.
NEMETHY: Is Ukraine War the beginning of World War III?
The conventional definition of a World War is that it involves the participation of multiple major powers in a global conflict. Yet one increasingly hears that the Ukrainian War signals the outbreak of World War III.
RIDDLE: The Russian army in 2023
More than 10 months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, looking back at 2022, the Kremlin is sparing no effort to at least partially restore the capability of its armed forces, which continue to shrink amidst heavy fighting.
‘Yesterday’s strategy won’t do’ in Europe’s approach to Iran says Carnegie analyst
Cornelius Adebahr point to signs of power struggle within Tehran’s elite. Several insiders have in recent weeks argued in favour of more substantial reforms to address protesters’ grievances.
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PANNIER: You won’t catch Turkmenistan putting all its eggs in one (Russian) basket
Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov’s visit to Beijing may not have secured more gas sales, but it did serve to reaffirm ties with the country’s only stable major partner.
OPINION: What politics after Vucic will look like is Serbia’s billion-dollar question
For the last decade Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has worked to make himself irreplaceable. So when he talks about life after politics he raises questions that no one can answer.
ING: The end of 2022 saw inflation fall in Poland, but the peak is still ahead
December CPI inflation was confirmed at 16.6% Y/y. It moderated on the monthly decline in energy prices. The core inflation is trending upwards and the peak in headline CPI inflation is still ahead.
NEMETHY: Key economic and financial drivers to watch in 2023
There is an old joke that the role of economic forecasters is to make astrologers look good. Forecasting GDP or inflation for the upcoming year with any degree of accuracy is virtually impossible, but there are some scary signs appearing.
CENUSA: Preventing Russian threats in 2023: three priorities for risk reduction for the West.
"The failure to prevent the crisis in Ukraine exposed the limitations of the warning and risk reduction mechanisms used by the EU..."
COMMENT: 100 years since the USSR’s foundation? So what?!
I remember during the 2017 centenary of the February and October Revolutions wondering how the world looked at Russia with great intrigue. How would the Russian state square with this fateful year? How do Russians feel about it now?
THE MITTELEUROPEAN VIEW: Western banks go back to square one in CEE
Major Western banks had already adjusted their regional portfolio allocations back to Central Europe so the Ukraine war has not forced a complete reassessment of business strategies.
PANNIER: How Putin may have leant on Turkmenistan to spike gas-for-Europe plan
President Berdimuhamedov may have put Turkish counterpart Erdogan’s nose out of joint by shelving pipeline interconnector proposal.
IMF: Global food prices to remain elevated amid war, costly energy, La Niña.
Interest rate hikes have eased price pressures, but the weather, war and material costs could keep food prices elevated for longer,
Opinion: North Kosovo faces its worst instability since 2011
The risks of further escalation, including localised violence, should not be underestimated.
IMF: Riding the global debt rollercoaster
Global debt remained above pre-pandemic levels in 2021 even after posting its steepest decline in 70 years, underscoring the challenges for policymakers.
