Opinion
ING: Czech economy falls by less than previously feared in 1Q
The preliminary GDP figure for the first quarter surprised on the upside. The economy fell just 0.3% quarter on quarter, with pandemic restrictions being in place throughout the quarter.
COMMENT: “Patronagists” scandal brings back memories of the communist era in Albania
Ahead of the April general election Albania’s ruling Socialists were revealed to be keeping the population under surveillance.
Taking the Tashkent Stock Exchange to the next level
Akmal Djalilov, founder of Uzbekistan’s BeTrader platform, looks at a new decree allowing Uzbek companies to list abroad.
COMMENT: Philanthropy in Russia – not for the faint-hearted
Wealth in Russia comes with no small number of headaches. But one of the more surprising ones, linked to money, is that sometimes you can’t even give it away.
COMMENT: Was Russia preparing to invade Ukraine? A look inside Moscow’s strategy
The recent build-up and withdrawal of Russian forces at Ukraine's eastern border forms part of President Putin's coherent strategy to recover control of Ukraine and reverse the 1991 territorial losses stemming from the 1991 collapse of the USSR.
COMMENT: Political interference in Naftogaz supervisory board operations is a major setback in corporate governance reform
Ukraine’s business community and its supporters abroad condemned the Cabinet’s decision to sack the widely respected CEO of Naftogaz Andriy Kobolev on April 28, calling it an abuse of corporate governance that will undermine foreign investment.
RIMMER: Armenia Genocide recognition – better late than never?
The US recognition of the Armenian Genocide was more than 100 years coming, but it runs the risk of looking more like realpolitik than a sincere gesture.
COMMENT: Putin restructures Russia’s regional debt
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposals to restructure the debt of Russia's regions in his State of the Nation speech on April 21 will likely provide them with some much-needed fiscal relief in an election year.
RIMMER: King of the swingers
Russian President Vladimir Putin fancies himself as The King of The Swingers, but it’s The Simple, Bare Necessities that Russians care about. State of The Nation? It’s a mess.
Turkmenistan: My kingdom for a horse association
Legacy and death must linger perennially even in the minds of the most megalomaniacal autocrats, and this is why preparations for Turkmenistan’s future are proceeding apace.
FPRI BMB Ukraine: How well could Ukraine defend itself against a Russian attack?
Russia’s military exercises near the Ukrainian border have many analysts looking into Ukraine’s capacity to defend against a full-fledged attack. While Kyiv has invested heavily in modernising its military, it remains seriously outgunned.
Romanians gripped by cryptocurrency euphoria during the pandemic
The euphoria of the 1990s is back as small investors ignore the risks and dream of getting rich overnight.
BORDERLEX: EU Commission goes back to the drawing board to revive Turkey trade talks
The Commission's latest attempt to revamp the customs union with Turkey faces many obstacles before it can even start.
COMMENT: Strengthening the foundation of the Uzbek capital markets infrastructure
After their sitting moribund for two and half decades, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has just launched a major reform of the Uzbek capital markets that could transform financing in the republic.
COMMENT: Fresh US sanctions and OFZ primary market ban a global non-event, but sanctions possibly now entrenched quasi indefinitely
The US took a mild path for the time being with the new sanctions on Russia’s debt. Sanctioning the primary market activity of OFZs for US entities has little impact on Russia and international financial markets.
MITTELEUROPEAN INSIGHTS: Russian 'sanctions bubble' vs Ukrainian and Turkish fundamentals
For financial market investors, Russia is currently in the same basket as Turkey and Ukraine, but only on a temporary basis.
TRENIN: Russia-Ukraine war alert – what’s behind it and what lies ahead?
Perhaps the most important thing for the Russian leadership in this episode was to prevent the need to actually go to war against Ukraine in the future. Going for overkill in terms of military manoeuvres now prevents actual war later.
ING: Russian ruble downgraded on weak balance of payments in 1Q21
In 1Q21, ruble weakness was caused not just by political tensions, but also by a disappointing trade balance and resumed preference for foreign assets by residents. ING has downgraded its mid-year ruble expectations to USD/RUB75.
FPRI BMB Ukraine: Minsk peace talks may abandon Minsk
Ukraine has announced that it will not hold further peace talks in Minsk within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
FPRI BMB Ukraine: Turning up the heat in the Donbas and Crimea
For the past couple of weeks, videos have flooded social media showing convoys of Russian military trucks, trains full of tanks, and hordes of helicopters heading toward Ukraine. The question everyone’s asking is: is Russia going to invade Ukraine?
