Opinion

CENUSA: Bringing Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia closer to the EU: a multi-speed progress.

Denis Cenusa in Germany February 7, 2023

"If the EU institutions do not ensure that the progress achieved by Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia [is] fully impartial, they will be doing them a disservice. Their path towards Europeanisation must not be subjectivised or romanticised."

NEMETHY: How the Battle for Ukraine may change Europe

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors February 6, 2023

More and more signs point to a new major Russian initiative to take Ukraine in the spring, including a possible attack on Kyiv. How could a major Russian offensive or a Russian victory in Ukraine challenge Europe?

COMMENT: The new Cold War will be different, and not only because of China

Peter Szopo February 6, 2023

Mercantilism is also replacing globalisation, and the US has a declining interest in European affairs.

PANNIER: Uzbeks, Kyrgyz cooperating to level unthinkable 10 years ago

Bruce Pannier January 31, 2023

Gone is the era when Uzbekistan’s late president Islam Karimov was walling off his country from its immediate neighbours.

PANNIER: A very Turkmen coup

Bruce Pannier January 27, 2023

Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov returns as head of state, albeit with a different title. The word is, son and president Serdar has proved a bad negotiator.

OPINION: Bulgaria sets itself a tough task with Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline revival

Fuad Shahbazov in Durham January 23, 2023

Bulgaria urgently needs non-Russian crude for its Black Sea refinery, but there are multiple challenges to reviving the Burgas-Alexandroupolis project.

NEMETHY: Is Ukraine War the beginning of World War III?

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors January 23, 2023

The conventional definition of a World War is that it involves the participation of multiple major powers in a global conflict. Yet one increasingly hears that the Ukrainian War signals the outbreak of World War III.

RIDDLE: The Russian army in 2023

Pavel Luzin for Riddle January 22, 2023

More than 10 months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, looking back at 2022, the Kremlin is sparing no effort to at least partially restore the capability of its armed forces, which continue to shrink amidst heavy fighting.

‘Yesterday’s strategy won’t do’ in Europe’s approach to Iran says Carnegie analyst

bne IntelIiNews January 17, 2023

Cornelius Adebahr point to signs of power struggle within Tehran’s elite. Several insiders have in recent weeks argued in favour of more substantial reforms to address protesters’ grievances.

PANNIER: You won’t catch Turkmenistan putting all its eggs in one (Russian) basket

Bruce Pannier January 16, 2023

Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov’s visit to Beijing may not have secured more gas sales, but it did serve to reaffirm ties with the country’s only stable major partner.

OPINION: What politics after Vucic will look like is Serbia’s billion-dollar question

Ann Smith in New York January 16, 2023

For the last decade Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has worked to make himself irreplaceable. So when he talks about life after politics he raises questions that no one can answer.

ING: The end of 2022 saw inflation fall in Poland, but the peak is still ahead

Rafal Benecki ING’s chief economist for Poland January 13, 2023

December CPI inflation was confirmed at 16.6% Y/y. It moderated on the monthly decline in energy prices. The core inflation is trending upwards and the peak in headline CPI inflation is still ahead.

NEMETHY: Key economic and financial drivers to watch in 2023

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors January 10, 2023

There is an old joke that the role of economic forecasters is to make astrologers look good. Forecasting GDP or inflation for the upcoming year with any degree of accuracy is virtually impossible, but there are some scary signs appearing.

CENUSA: Preventing Russian threats in 2023: three priorities for risk reduction for the West.

Denis Cenusa in Germany January 10, 2023

"The failure to prevent the crisis in Ukraine exposed the limitations of the warning and risk reduction mechanisms used by the EU..."

COMMENT: 100 years since the USSR’s foundation? So what?!

James C Pearce in Yekaterinburg January 3, 2023

I remember during the 2017 centenary of the February and October Revolutions wondering how the world looked at Russia with great intrigue. How would the Russian state square with this fateful year? How do Russians feel about it now?

THE MITTELEUROPEAN VIEW: Western banks go back to square one in CEE

Gunter Deuber of Raiffeisen Research December 21, 2022

Major Western banks had already adjusted their regional portfolio allocations back to Central Europe so the Ukraine war has not forced a complete reassessment of business strategies.

PANNIER: How Putin may have leant on Turkmenistan to spike gas-for-Europe plan

Bruce Pannier December 19, 2022

President Berdimuhamedov may have put Turkish counterpart Erdogan’s nose out of joint by shelving pipeline interconnector proposal.

IMF: Global food prices to remain elevated amid war, costly energy, La Niña.

Ervin Prifti . December 14, 2022

Interest rate hikes have eased price pressures, but the weather, war and material costs could keep food prices elevated for longer,

Opinion: North Kosovo faces its worst instability since 2011

Alex Young in Belgrade December 13, 2022

The risks of further escalation, including localised violence, should not be underestimated.

IMF: Riding the global debt rollercoaster

Vitor Gaspar Paulo Medas and Roberto Perrelli for the IMF December 13, 2022

Global debt remained above pre-pandemic levels in 2021 even after posting its steepest decline in 70 years, underscoring the challenges for policymakers.

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