Opinion
MACRO ADVISORY: Buckle up, August is coming
Russia’s recent history has repeatedly shown that August is a month when surprises, usually bad, can happen more often than in any other month.
COMMENT: Why has China’s foreign minister spent three days in Damascus? Probably not having trade discussions
A few days ago China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi spent three days visiting President Bashar al Assad in Syria, the first foreign dignitary the Syrian president has hosted since the start of his new term.
HOMANS: Putin's Epistle to the Ukrainians
On July 12, Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, released an epistle entitled "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" that has set the cat amongst the pigeons
Perspectives | Blame it on Russia? The danger of geopolitical takes on Georgia’s far right
Framing Georgia’s far right as a unified pro-Russian actor obscures complex local problems.
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COMMENT: Uzbekistan will have to host Afghan refugees in the near future
Issue one of many to be addressed by July 15-16 conference, "Central and South Asia: regional dependence. Threats and opportunities", convened on initiative of Uzbek president.
STOLYPIN: Putin’s cybercrime challenge
Following recent cases of Russian-linked cyberespionage and ransomware attacks. President Biden has cranked up the pressure on Vladimir Putin to act.
ING: Russian inflation hits 6.5%, and can go higher
Russian CPI jumped to 6.5% y/y in June and kept accelerating in the first week of July. While supply-side inflation seems to have stabilised, demand-driven CPI stands out in pharma, construction materials, and tourism sectors.
Perspectives - What to expect from the new Iranian president – a view from the Caucasus
The election of a hardliner could augur a more security-oriented approach by Tehran toward Armenia and Azerbaijan.
ING: OPEC+ fails to come to a deal
The standoff between the UAE and the rest of OPEC+ continues, with Monday’s meeting cancelled. In theory this means that OPEC+ output will remain unchanged in August, which would be bullish for prices in the short term.
COMMENT: Russian 'Jackson Hole' macro takeaways: monetary policy is put under review
The International Financial Congress was held by Central Bank of Russia (CBR) on June 28 –July 2. The conference was designed to discuss and reshape policies in the medium term.
COMMENT: Striking a balance in the global energy transition
As oil prices rise to their highest level in almost three years, OPEC and its partners are discussing a deal to increase production. Abandoning fossil fuels is a hot topic, but like it or not, oil remains the world’s most important commodity.
HOMANS: Ukraine takes control of unleashed drones
Since its independence in 1991, Ukraine has been largely limited in its capability to defend itself, partly through poor decisions made by Ukraine and partly due to limits placed on Ukraine by its Western partners. Turkish drones have changed that.
MITTELEUROPEAN INSIGHTS: Czech and Hungarian central banks in sync in 2021 but longer term CNB to outpace MNB
This week the Czech National Bank increased its key interest rate for the first time in the last 16 months, while the Hungarian National Bank did so for the first time in the last 10 years.
RIMMER: Sea snot as metaphor
Sea snot is the perfect metaphor for the Erdogan regime. That was my first thought when I saw the visually arresting images of the Sea of Marmara enveloped in a suffocating gunk.
Amid Afghanistan pullout observers ask if there's a place for a US military base in Central Asia
Carnegie analyst identifies Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan as long-shot options.
MITTELEUROPEAN INSIGHTS: EU and Austria – what is your stance on the Belarus sanctions?
In the end, the EU has agreed to comprehensive economic sanctions against Belarus. Sectoral EU sanctions are to be revealed and likely adopted by the EU on 24-25 June and reportedly include sanctions on potash and mineral fuel exports and finance.
ECFR: Biden meets Putin: America, Russia, and the return of diplomacy
Joe Biden is the fifth American president to hold a bilateral summit with Vladimir Putin. But he is likely the first post-Cold War US president to have a realistic understanding of what Russia is and what it wants.
RIMMER: Unhappy anniversary: Operation Barbarossa
It's the anniversary of Operation Barbarossa on June 22, when Hitler launched his surprise invasion of the Soviet Union, completely catching Stalin unawares. The ultimate victory over the Nazis has become a centre-piece of Putin's Russia.
THE VIEW FROM MITTELEUROPA: Surviving on life support – Belarus, sanctions and path-dependency
The Ryanair incident on 23 May was as much a bellwether for the status quo in Belarus as it is a geopolitical catalyst.
COMMENT: Time to end Putin's impunity
The price faced by Russia for aggression must be too high for the Kremlin to countenance, and this is the message that Biden should deliver to Putin – and act upon.
