ASH: What Xi really wants in Moscow

Timothy Ash Senior Sovereign Strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London March 21, 2023

First, as I have previously argued on this blog, I think ideally Xi would want to call an end to the war in Ukraine. It may initially have served a purpose for China, but I think China now sees a real prospect of a catastrophic defeat for Russia.

ING: Romania is issuance leader in SE region

Valentin Tataru Chief Economist of ING in Romania, Frantisek Taborsky is an FX & FI Strategist covering EMEA markets at ING, James Wilson is a EM Sovereign Strategist at ING. March 21, 2023

Romania’s fiscal policy continues to consolidate and borrowing needs are at a record high due to the heavy maturity calendar. However, net issuance of ROMGBs is almost the same as last year. Romania is the region's leader with 44% of planned bonds.

COMMENT: BOFIT forecast for Russia 2023–2024

BOFIT March 19, 2023

Russian GDP contracted by 2.1% last year. For the current year, we expect an economic decline of similar magnitude.

STOLYPIN: The quiet and the noisy

Mark Galeotti March 18, 2023

There seem to be two kinds of Russian political figure: the quiet and the noisy. We tend to focus on the noisy ones for obvious reasons, but it is the quiet ones who tend to matter, and the case of Evgeny Prigozhin illustrates this perfectly.

PANNIER: Ahead of elections, is Kazakhstan’s Tokayev preparing for more unrest?

Bruce Pannier March 17, 2023

Though some changes in the poll formats hint at New Kazakhstan, the president’s words are ominously reminiscent of Old Kazakhstan.

COMMENT: Georgia’s uneasy path towards EU membership

Gia Tarkhan-Mouravi in Tbilisi March 15, 2023

Since communism collapsed and Georgia achieved independence, we have only too often witnessed an ambivalence about the country's future direction among its ruling elites.

THE VIEW FROM MITTELEUROPA: Austria and Russia – ending the 'special relationship'?

Marcus How of Vienneast in Vienna March 14, 2023

Vienna is giving the impression that it is struggling to decouple its interests from Russia, if not actively avoiding doing so.

COMMENT: The Saudi-Iran rapprochement will lead to lower tensions in the Middle East, but rivalries remain

bne IntelliNews March 14, 2023

Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic ties on March 10, bringing an end to seven years of conflict between the two nations in a deal brokered by China that is expected to have wide-ranging consequences.

PANNIER: Blinken visit delivered prod rather than shove in right direction for Central Asia

Bruce Pannier March 14, 2023

Kremlin nevertheless bristled at top diplomat’s arrival, saying “there is no place for the democratisation experiments of Washington”.

ING: Poland’s central bank governor optimistic on inflation outlook, no end to tightening cycle

Rafal Benecki ING’s chief economist for Poland, Adam Antoniak senior economist at ING March 10, 2023

Like the National Bank of Poland, we expect a big drop in CPI inflation by the end of 2023 (see table), but we see a lot of risks hindering inflation from reaching the target in subsequent years. There is little chance for rate cuts this year.

IMF: Global food crisis may persist, with prices still elevated after year of war.

Jeff Kearns of the IMF March 10, 2023

One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended agricultural commodity markets, food prices remain elevated even after retreating from their record highs in early 2022.

COMMENT: Czech growth to disappoint as eurozone recession hits

Nicholas Farr at Capital Economics March 8, 2023

Capital Economics thinks that Czech GDP may fall slightly further over the first half of this year and expects only a slow recovery in the second half.

CENUSA: Russia and the geopolitical costs of war – the "frozen conflicts" in Moldova and Azerbaijan

Denis Cenusa in Germany March 7, 2023

"In a context of deep regional instability, the situation of the "frozen conflicts" is vulnerable to Russia's military presence and the unpredictability of its geostrategic actions..." w

RIMMER: Erdogan’s hit and run election – Turkey’s opposition bloc is now left one tinny short of a six-pack

Julian Rimmer in London March 6, 2023

After a dozen meetings between its half-dozen constituents, the Nation’s Alliance failed to reach a unanimous selection of a presidential candidate to challenge Erdogan in May’s national ballot.

McFAUL: The guessing game about what Putin will do if he begins to lose even more badly in Ukraine

Michael McFaul in Stanford March 5, 2023

In 1986, I wrote a thesis on Soviet decision-making behind military interventions in Eastern Europe as well as American responses to them. Tragically, this topic is still relevant today.

COMMENT: After one year of war, Russia faces new challenges in Ukraine

Neil Hauer in the Donbas March 1, 2023

Within the ranks of the foreign fighters participating on Ukraine’s side, other movements are being born that may challenge the power of Russia’s allies in their own realms soon.

ASH: Putin’s war brings Russia’s decline

Tim Ash of BlueBay Asset Management in London February 24, 2023

One year on from Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, and it’s pretty clear that Russia has already lost so much on so many fronts because of Putin’s idiotic choices.

PANNIER: Uzbekistan’s relations with Taliban start to fray

Bruce Pannier February 22, 2023

Gripes over power exports, railway contracts and Afghan warplanes seized by Tashkent cause friction.

MACRO ADVISORY: One year on, sanctions impact in context

Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory February 21, 2023

By the end of 2Q22, the common belief was that the Russian economy was already hurtling towards disaster, buckling under the weight of sanctions. But it didn't happen. A lot of damage has been done to the economy, but what went right?

RIDDLE: 2023 — The year of big elections in Russia

Ksenia Smolyakova for Riddle February 21, 2023

In Russia’s domestic politics, the year 2023 will be marked by the presidential election campaign. While it formally starts in December, it has already begun informally.