Opinion
ANALYSIS: Is the Turkish lira any less vulnerable than last year?
Turkey is beset by any number of economic difficulties and political uncertainty has now entered the equation. Worries that another BoP ‘sudden stop’ is under way also call the country’s currency stability into question.
Turkish government failing to see politics may push economy over cliff-edge: Chatham House fellow
Degradation of institutional integrity, high short-term FX debt in private sector, low net reserves and paucity of portfolio capital investment inflows may prove fatal, says Fadi Hakura.
COMMENT: Russia: industrial output slows back to reality
The return of industrial output to moderate 1.2% year-on-year growth in March confirms the technical nature of February's 4.1% y/y spike. So far we see signs of a slowdown of investment activity at the beginning of 2019.
COMMENT: Russia Balance of Payments: increasingly reliant on portfolio inflows
The only reason for the ruble's 6% appreciation to the US dollar in 1Q19 was the $7.5bn gross portfolio inflows into the state bond market, as Russia's expectedly strong current account was fully offset by the government and the private sector's pref
COMMENT: WTO report on Russia-Ukraine transit and national security disputes to test future of trading system
Washington was the only World Trade Organization (WTO) member that supported Moscow in a highly politicised trade dispute with Ukraine and the whole organisation has been thrown into an existential crisis as a result.
COMMENT: EU & the Western Balkans: a win-win constellation at second glance
At first glance, the enlargement of the EU to include the states of the Western Balkans seems to be an irrelevant trifle for the EU, but on closer inspection it is a good idea as expansion of the EU is not just about business.
COMMENT: Russian near-term CPI risks decline
Russian CPI in March was at the lower bound of the consensus range. We see CPI growth as being close to its peak this year, however, the longer-term risk profile still calls for caution on the part of the Central Bank
COLCHIS: When corruption trumps geopolitics: lessons from the Moldovan election
The flawed recent elections in Moldova reveal a simpler truth: that political expediency and corruption often wins over strategic and geopolitical orientation.
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ISTANBUL BLOG: Turkey in limbo – Markets only hear the tick tock of the Erdogan clock
Until it’s clear whether or not the strongman will take the Ankara and Istanbul election defeats on the chin, the country will feel stuck at a crossroads.
COLCHIS: Armenia is a Russian ally and EEU member, so how did it pull off a democratic revolution?
For Armenia, a Russian ally, a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), and once regarded as increasingly autocratic, the 2018 Velvet Revolution was a remarkable achievement.
ISTANBUL BLOG: In theory Erdogan will pay heavy price in Sunday local elections for botching economy. But that’s just a theory
Analysts would be shocked if ruling AKP party countenances losing both Ankara and Istanbul.
COMMENT: No-deal Brexit could affect value chains in the EBRD regions
Newly published EBRD research finds that a significant proportion of value chains within the 12 EU countries where the Bank operates, and also in Turkey as a member of the EU Customs Union, could be affected in an event of Brexit
COMMENT: The Kazakh transition has finally begun
The “Kazakhstan transition” has been expected for years. Although it was widely predicted, no one – inside or outside of Kazakhstan – could guess exactly when it would happen.
LONG READ: Turkish economy reaches uncharted territory on cusp of election week
The lira is once more losing its feet and Turkey’s stocks and bonds have another bloody nose. The latest Erdogan-Trump beef was the trigger, but eurobond markets had started to tire of Turkish debt and locals show no confidence in their currency.