Western Balkans citizens legally resident in EU equal to 14% of region’s population
International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) has stripped Belarus of the right to hold the World Championship this year
Alexei Navalny arrested on arrival as he returns home
LONG READ: The oligarch problem
Russia's National Welfare Fund accounts for almost 12% of GDP
Police arresting activists ahead of Saturday’s demonstration in support of Navalny
Biden seeking a five-year extension to START II missile treaty
Russian consumer confidence index drops q/q, y/y in 4Q20
Western Balkans and Ukraine urged to scrutinise coal subsidies
Oligarchs trying to derail Ukraine’s privatisation programme, warns the head of Ukraine’s State Property Fund
Private finance mobilised by development banks up 9% to $175bn in 2019
VISEGRAD BLOG: Central Europe's populists need a new strategy for Biden
OUTLOOK 2021 Lithuania
EBRD says loan to Estonia’s controversial Porto Franco project was never disbursed
Czech MPs pass protectionist food law in violation of EU rules
M&A in Central and Eastern Europe fell 16% in value in 2020, says CMS report
Hungarian vehicle makers hit by supply chain shortage
COVID-19 and Trump’s indifference helped human rights abusers in 2020
OUTLOOK 2021 Poland
OUTLOOK 2021 Slovakia
BRICKS & MORTAR: Rosier future beckons for CEE retailers after year of change and disruption
FDI inflows to CEE down 58% in 1H20 but rebound expected
Albania needs reforms for e-commerce to thrive, says World Bank
BALKAN BLOG: US approach to switch from quick-fix dealmaking to experience and cooperation
Corona-induced slump in global clothing sector dragged down Albania’s 2020 exports
Bosnia's exports in 2020 amounted to BAM10.5bn, trade deficit to BAM6.3bn
Bulgaria's Biodit first company to IPO on new BEAM market
Bulgaria’s government considers gradual easing of COVID-related restrictions
Sofia-based LAUNCHub Ventures holds first close of new fund on €44mn
Spring lockdown caused spike in online transactions in Croatia
ING: Growth in the Balkans: from zero to hero again?
Labour demand down 28% y/y in Croatia in 2020
EBRD investments reach record €11bn in pandemic-struck 2020
OUTLOOK 2021 Moldova
Storming parliaments: New Europe's greatest hits
World Bank revises projection for Moldova’s 2020 GDP decline to 7.2%
Montenegrins say state administration is most corrupt institution
North Macedonia plans to cut personal income tax in IT sector to zero in 2023
Romania government to pursue “ambitious” timetable for justice reforms
OUTLOOK 2021 Romania
OUTLOOK 2021 Slovenia
Slovenia’s opposition files no-confidence motion against Jansa cabinet
Slovenia’s government to release funds to news agency STA after EU pressure
UK Moneyhub picks Slovenia for post-Brexit European base
D’S Damat franchise deals ‘show Turkey’s hard-pressed mall operators becoming their own tenants’
Turkey’s benchmark rate held as concerns over faltering recovery come to fore
Turkish lira breaches HSBC’s stop-loss, Turkey ETF signalling outflows
CAUCASUS BLOG : What can Biden offer the Caucasus and Stans, all but forgotten about by Trump?
Armenia ‘to extend life of its 1970s Metsamor nuclear power plant after 2026’
OUTLOOK 2021 Armenia
COMMENT: Record high debt levels will slow post-coronavirus recovery, threaten some countries' financial stability, says IIF
OUTLOOK 2021 Georgia
Iran’s Khamenei menaces private citizen Trump with image of aircraft shadowing blond golfer
Iran’s technology minister indicted for failing to properly implement internet censorship
No US move to rejoin Iran nuclear deal imminent, say Biden national security nominees
TEHRAN BLOG: Will Biden bet on a quick return to the Iran nuclear deal?
Central Asia vaccination plans underwhelm, but governments look unruffled
Fears of authoritarianism as Kyrgyz populist wins landslide and backing for ‘Khanstitution’
Mongolia's PM quits amid protests over treatment of mother with coronavirus and newborn baby
Mongolia's winter dzud set to be one of most extreme on record says Red Cross
Mongolian coal exports to China paralysed as Beijing demands virus testing of truck drivers
Mongolia fears economic damage as country faces up to its first local transmissions of coronavirus
OUTLOOK 2021 Tajikistan
OUTLOOK 2021 Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan: How the Grinch stole New Year
COMMENT: Uzbekistan is being transformed, but where are the democratic reforms?
Download the pdf version
More...
Iran, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are among 19 countries for which the inaugural edition of the Ecological Threat Register (ETR), lately released by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), brings particularly ominous news. The trio are among 19 countries, of 157 assessed, deemed the most fragile with high exposure to ecological threats and the highest risk of future collapse in the decades ahead.
The ETR concludes that the three countries with the highest exposure to ecological shocks are Afghanistan, which is facing six ecological threats, and Mozambique and Namibia, which are each facing five. Another 16, including Iran and the two mentioned Central Asian nations, face four ecological threats.
As for Russia, the rest of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) and Azerbaijan and Georgia in the South Caucasus, as well as Turkey and Mongolia, the picture is still rather bleak with medium exposure (two to three threats) to ecological dangers applying throughout this geography.
According to the Sydney-headquartered IEP, the register has determined that approximately one billion people live in countries that do not have the resilience to deal with the ecological changes they are expected to face between now and 2050. Not all of these people will be displaced, however it is likely that a large number of them will be.
“Pakistan, with 220 million people is the country with the largest number of people at risk, followed by Iran with 84 million people at risk. In such circumstances, even small events could spiral into instability and violence leading to mass population displacement, which in turn would have negative implications for regional and global security.”
Iran
The Islamic Republic of Iran is one of five countries shown by the ETR with the highest water stress, the others being Qatar, Israel, Lebanon and Jordan. It also ranks sixth among the 20 countries with the most displaced people from disasters, with 520,000 people displaced by five disasters. In terms of disasters, the country is seen as most exposed to floods. Iran also features in a group of 31 “hotspot” countries home to more than one billion people that face both high ecological threats and low levels of resilience.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan is also one of the 31 “hotspot” countries, a group which also includes Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Chad and Yemen. “These countries have very low resilience and are already experiencing adverse effects from ongoing conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic,” observes the IEP.
The IEP has formulated a “Positive Peace” index which it says is an accurate measure of socio-economic resilience to ecological threats. The “hotspot” countries including Iran and Tajikistan “combine high levels of ecological threats with low and stagnant socio-economic resilience”, it states.
“Without strong improvements in Positive Peace, the lack of coping capacity in these countries could lead to worsening food insecurity, civil unrest, mass displacement and competition over resources,” adds the IEP.
Tajikistan is also identified among countries, home to 746mn people in all, that “live in countries with very low capacity to deal with resource depletion threats such as rapid population growth, water stress and food insecurity”.
Tajikistan and Iran face high levels of flood insecurity.
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan, with its population of 6.5mn, can at least boast a “Medium” mark in terms of its Positive Peace status (as measured in 2018), compared to “Low” for Iran and “Very Low” for Tajikistan.
In terms of the “Change in Positive Peace from 2009 to 2018”, Kyrgyzstan made a “Strong Improvement”, while Iran saw a “Deterioration” and Tajikistan a “Marginal Improvement”.
Natural disaster, by Leonardo da Vinci.
Russia and Eurasia
The ETR shows that “eleven of the 12 countries in the Russia and Eurasia region have medium or high exposure to ecological threats. The region includes all of the landlocked Central Asian countries, which are facing an extremely high level of water stress, the likelihood of droughts and have a higher than average population growth. Within the region, [as outlined above] Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan face the highest exposure to ecological threats, with both registering an ETR score of four. Conversely, Armenia is the only country in the region with low exposure [0 to 1 threats].
“Water scarcity is the main ecological issue in the region with 10 of the 12 countries experiencing different degrees of water stress and another seven countries have experienced droughts. As a result of climate change, the region is expected to experience increasing temperatures, extreme weather events, and glacial melt which will likely exacerbate desertification.
“Environmental stressors will affect local and regional economies as overexploitation and lack of resources are expected to impact key industries such as agriculture.”
Register here to continue reading this article and 5 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access including the bne Magazine for just $250/year.
Register to read the bne monthly magazine for free:
Already registered
Password could contain only a-z0-9\+*?[^]$(){}=!<>|:-_ characters and have 8-20 symbols length.
Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.
Forgotten password?
Email field can't be empty.
No user with this email address.
Access recovery request has expired, or you are using the wrong recovery token. Please, try again.
Access recover request has expired. Please, try again.
To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.
Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.
If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com
Sorry, but you have used all your free articles fro this month for bne IntelliNews. Subscribe to continue reading for only $119 per year.
Your subscription includes:
For the meantime we are also offering a free subscription to bne's digital weekly newspaper to subscribers to the online package.
Click here for more subscription options, including to the print version of our flagship monthly magazine:
More subscription options
Take a trial to our premium daily news service aimed at professional investors that covers the 30 countries of emerging Europe:
Get IntelliNews PRO
For any other enquiries about our products or corporate discounts please contact us at sales@intellinews.com
If you no longer wish to receive our emails, unsubscribe here.
Magazine annual electronic subscription
Magazine annual print subscription
Website & Archive annual subscription
Combined package: web access & magazine print annual subscription