Eurasia / Opinion

PANNIER: Ahead of elections, is Kazakhstan’s Tokayev preparing for more unrest?

Bruce Pannier March 17, 2023

Though some changes in the poll formats hint at New Kazakhstan, the president’s words are ominously reminiscent of Old Kazakhstan.

COMMENT: Georgia’s uneasy path towards EU membership

Gia Tarkhan-Mouravi in Tbilisi March 15, 2023

Since communism collapsed and Georgia achieved independence, we have only too often witnessed an ambivalence about the country's future direction among its ruling elites.

COMMENT: The Saudi-Iran rapprochement will lead to lower tensions in the Middle East, but rivalries remain

bne IntelliNews March 14, 2023

Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic ties on March 10, bringing an end to seven years of conflict between the two nations in a deal brokered by China that is expected to have wide-ranging consequences.

PANNIER: Blinken visit delivered prod rather than shove in right direction for Central Asia

Bruce Pannier March 14, 2023

Kremlin nevertheless bristled at top diplomat’s arrival, saying “there is no place for the democratisation experiments of Washington”.

CENUSA: Russia and the geopolitical costs of war – the "frozen conflicts" in Moldova and Azerbaijan

Denis Cenusa in Germany March 7, 2023

"In a context of deep regional instability, the situation of the "frozen conflicts" is vulnerable to Russia's military presence and the unpredictability of its geostrategic actions..." w

PANNIER: Uzbekistan’s relations with Taliban start to fray

Bruce Pannier February 22, 2023

Gripes over power exports, railway contracts and Afghan warplanes seized by Tashkent cause friction.

HESS: Russia is down, but not out, in Central Asia

Maximilian Hess February 18, 2023

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has weakened its influence in Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan. Russia is no longer a regional hegemon, which may increase regional instability. Tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are especially dangerous.

PANNIER: Rustam Emomali’s long and winding road to Tajikistan’s presidency

Bruce Pannier February 15, 2023

Each time he appears to near the prize, difficulties caused by external events seem to snatch it away.

IMF: Charting globalization’s turn to 'slowbalization' after world financial crisis

Jeff Kearns of the IMF February 9, 2023

The free flow of ideas, people, goods, services, and capital across national borders leads to greater economic integration. But globalization, the trend toward these things moving ever more freely between nations, has slowed in recent years.

CENUSA: Bringing Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia closer to the EU: a multi-speed progress.

Denis Cenusa in Germany February 7, 2023

"If the EU institutions do not ensure that the progress achieved by Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia [is] fully impartial, they will be doing them a disservice. Their path towards Europeanisation must not be subjectivised or romanticised."

COMMENT: The new Cold War will be different, and not only because of China

Peter Szopo February 6, 2023

Mercantilism is also replacing globalisation, and the US has a declining interest in European affairs.

PANNIER: Uzbeks, Kyrgyz cooperating to level unthinkable 10 years ago

Bruce Pannier January 31, 2023

Gone is the era when Uzbekistan’s late president Islam Karimov was walling off his country from its immediate neighbours.

PANNIER: A very Turkmen coup

Bruce Pannier January 27, 2023

Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov returns as head of state, albeit with a different title. The word is, son and president Serdar has proved a bad negotiator.

‘Yesterday’s strategy won’t do’ in Europe’s approach to Iran says Carnegie analyst

bne IntelIiNews January 17, 2023

Cornelius Adebahr point to signs of power struggle within Tehran’s elite. Several insiders have in recent weeks argued in favour of more substantial reforms to address protesters’ grievances.

PANNIER: You won’t catch Turkmenistan putting all its eggs in one (Russian) basket

Bruce Pannier January 16, 2023

Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov’s visit to Beijing may not have secured more gas sales, but it did serve to reaffirm ties with the country’s only stable major partner.

NEMETHY: Key economic and financial drivers to watch in 2023

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors January 10, 2023

There is an old joke that the role of economic forecasters is to make astrologers look good. Forecasting GDP or inflation for the upcoming year with any degree of accuracy is virtually impossible, but there are some scary signs appearing.