Eurasia / Opinion

PANNIER: Might Tokayev be the real deal?

Bruce Pannier November 28, 2022

Kazakhstan’s re-elected president has seven years to show he really does understand the meaning of the word he mouths so often, “reform”.

COMMENT: Tokayev to win Kazakhstan election but then face most testing years of his presidency

Peter Baunov in Astana November 18, 2022

Incumbent does not aspire to become a political reformer, but an economic one with a Singapore-style focus on economic modernisation under authoritarian rule.

PANNIER: Russia will be the elephant in the intray for Kazakhstan’s re-elected Tokayev

Bruce Pannier November 17, 2022

With victory in this weekend’s snap poll a formality, the president will already be thinking about how to rebalance relations with Russia, China and the West.

NEMETHY: The cure for high prices is – high prices

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors November 15, 2022

Prices are important economic signals. High prices – whether for energy foodstuffs, etc., are signals to the world to (a) supply more; (b) substitute; or (c) conserve. But how do you bring inflation down?

PANNIER: Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are only talking at each other. Another conflict is looming

Bruce Pannier November 9, 2022

As mutual recriminations fly over September’s short war, both Bishkek and Dushanbe are busy equipping their militaries with more arms.

Iran for first time involved in major war on European continent, conclude analysts

bne IntelIiNews November 2, 2022

By sending Russia drones, military advisors and perhaps ballistic missiles, Tehran seen as making it plain that it regards the Islamic Republic’s interests as intertwined with those of Moscow.

MACRO ADVISORY: Great Game 3.0: The Politics of Rail

Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory in Moscow October 25, 2022

Russia and China are the dominant trade and investment partners for Central Asian countries. But their dominance in the region is now being challenged by Turkey and Iran in a return to the "Great Game."

Was Tajik leader’s rant at Putin defiance or a plea for greater dependence?

Eurasianet October 18, 2022

Rahmon indicates that he wants more money and attention from Moscow.

HESS: Tajikistan’s President Rahmon demands respect from Russia

Maximilian Hess in London October 17, 2022

Winston Churchill once alluded to Kremlin power struggles as 'bulldogs fighting under a carpet' but the barking was remarkably audible when Tajik President Emomali made a rare and emotional speech calling on Russia for "respect"

PANNIER: Russia’s two centuries of Central Asia dominance are over

Bruce Pannier October 11, 2022

The disastrous Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a geopolitical tectonic shift. The five ‘stans’ are looking at other foreign partner options.

IMF BLOG: Policymakers need steady hand as storm clouds gather over global economy

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Economic Counsellor and the Director of Research of the IMF. October 11, 2022

One-third of the world economy will likely contract this year or next amid shrinking real incomes and rising prices. The global economy continues to face the challenges of war, a cost-of-living crisis and an energy crisis.

NEMETHY: Is the world heading towards a “polycrisis”?

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors October 5, 2022

According to historian Adam Tooze, we are currently potentially facing a “polycrisis”: a number of smaller to medium-sized crises in the world that have the potential to combine and reinforce each other.

PANNIER: Putin arrived with little to offer an SCO summit that showed no real clout

Bruce Pannier in Prague September 18, 2022

Disparate interests of organisation’s member nations meant many major issues of the day could not even be discussed. But there was only one dominant member: China.

COMMENT: Armenia-Azerbaijan military escalation is a test for Russian status quo in the region

Denis Cenusa September 15, 2022

The new outbreak of fighting tests Russia's relevance in maintaining peace and stability in the South Caucasus and could endanger its growing alliance with Turkey.

PANNIER: At Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, watch the action on the sidelines

Bruce Pannier in Prague September 13, 2022

Most important discussions and agreements at Samarkand gathering likely to concern regional connectivity, and the odd men out are Russia and Belarus.

COMMENT: Samarkand SCO Summit – dialogue and co-operation in an interconnected world

Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Tashkent September 12, 2022

Uzbekistan's chairmanship in the SCO has come at a moment of great change in the world – a period of "historical fracture", when one era ends and another begins, still unpredictable and unknown.

GUSTAFSON: Russian oil exports – are sanctions working?

Professor Thane Gustafson in Washington September 11, 2022

Six months after the beginning of the Russian invasion, the “Devil’s Dance” of Western sanctions and Russian oil exports and revenues has barely begun. The main contest still lies ahead.

IMF: How food and energy are driving the global inflation surge

Philip Barrett economist for the IMF September 11, 2022

Global inflation was generally moderating when the pandemic began, and the downward trend continued into the early months of the crisis. But surging prices since late 2020 have pushed inflation higher than in all of the last five years combined.