In the 14 years since he came to power, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has extended his influence to the Western Balkans, where he has been “inspiring … authoritarian behaviour” by local leaders with “questionable democratic credentials”, says a discussion paper published by the European Policy Centre (EPC). 

According the paper, the EU's historical emphasis on stability over democracy in the Western Balkans made it possible to overlook the authoritarian inclinations of regional leaders, who promised peace at the expense of democratic norms and fundamental freedoms.

Orban’s election as Hungary’s prime minister back in 2010 was the start of a "sharp and unprecedented transformation into an illiberal state” for the country, says the paper. His leadership has been characterised by a consolidation of power, erosion of democratic institutions, and a retreat from liberal values. 

International strategy 

Moreover, Orban’s rhetoric and policies have reverberated beyond Hungary's borders, inspiring similar trends among Balkan politicians, including Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Milorad Dodik, president of the Bosnian Serb entity, Republika Srpska.

“Since Viktor Orban was elected as prime minister in 2010, the country has undergone a sharp and unprecedented transformation into an “illiberal state” – just like Orban had promised in 2014 in a speech given in Romania,” said the paper’s author, EPC junior policy analyst Berta López Domènech. 

Beyond Hungary’s borders, Orban has built ties with other far-right leaders in the EU, as well as kindred spirits outside the bloc. “Increasingly isolated in Brussels, Orban has moved to build his illiberal bloc outside the EU by endorsing and inspiring the authoritarian behaviour of Balkan politicians with questionable democratic credentials and defending their interests before EU institutions,” wrote López Domènech. 

"Hungary’s growing presence in the Western Balkans has been driven by a set of economic, strategic, ideological and political factors. Orban’s illiberalism found a fertile ground in the EU’s misguided policy towards the Balkans, which long prioritised stability over democracy and overlooked authoritarian tendencies of regional political leaders who promised to deliver peace without a genuine commitment to the rule of law and fundamental rights.” 

Democratic backsliding 

Like Orban, both Vucic and Dodik are long-serving leaders. Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) first came to power in 2012, and from the 2014 general election has been the dominant force in Serbian politics. During this time, Serbia was downgraded from semi-consolidated democracy to hybrid regime on Freedom House’s 2020 – the same year as Hungary became the first EU member state to suffer a similar downgrade. 

During the last ten years, Bosnia & Herzegovina has also experienced a decline in democratic norms. The country's complex constitutional framework has enabled ethnic leaders to dominate the government, leading to a chronic state of political dysfunction. This decline has been especially pronounced in Republika Srpska. 

The ascent of authoritarianism in Hungary, Serbia and the Bosnian entity shares a notable characteristic: the consolidation of power within the grasp of their political leaders, says the paper. Over the last fifteen years, Orban, Vucic and Dodik, once viewed as moderate, liberal and pro-European, underwent a shift in ideology towards nationalist right-wing populism. 

In each case, the fusion of party and governmental actions, the personalisation of political authority, and the exploitation of public institutions have blurred the boundaries between the state (or entity, in the case of Republika Srpska), the ruling party and the leader.

“The populist turn of the Balkan leaders has been inspired and supported by the Hungarian Prime Minister, who has legitimised their authoritarian behaviour,” López Domènech wrote. 

Turning East 

Under Orban’s Fidesz party, Hungary’s foreign policy has gradually shifted towards the East, with Budapest forging closer ties with countries such as Russia, China and Turkey, and former Soviet republics like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, with the aim of positioning Hungary as a bridge between East and West. Orban also sought to assert Hungary's influence in the Western Balkans, aiming to establish the country as a significant political and economic force in the region.

His relationship with Vucic has grown remarkably close, with both leaders referring to each other as “friends". This closeness intensified particularly in the past five years, coinciding with increased cooperation between Hungary and Serbia, as well as with Republika Srpska.

With the suspension of Fidesz from the European People's Party (EPP) and the appointment of a close ally, Oliver Varhelyi, as EU Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Orban aimed to enhance Hungary's influence in the context of EU engagement with the Western Balkans.

Strategically, Southeast Europe's stability is vital for Hungary's aim to curb illegal migration and maintain border security. Orban has praised leaders like Vucic and Dodik for their roles in regional stability, using this as justification for advocating fast-track enlargement towards the Balkans.

Ideologically, Orban's exclusion from the EPP and his alignment with illiberal leaders who share similar traits, such as nationalism and scepticism towards European integration, have pushed him towards forming alliances with like-minded leaders in Southern Europe.

“Orban’s efforts to increase Hungary’s presence in the Balkans have granted him considerable soft power and influence in the region, particularly when enlargement policy was not a political priority for the EU,” says the paper. 

“Moreover, his friendship with Aleksandar Vučić and Milorad Dodik converted Orban into an interlocutor between Brussels and the two Balkan strongmen as the Hungarian leader sought to demonstrate his ability to mediate over sensitive issues.” 

This has been accompanied by an economic push into the region, particularly Serbia, where Hungary has increased investments in the media, infrastructure, and energy sectors, alongside growing trade between the two countries. Both nations rely on Russian gas and collaborate in the energy sector.

EU values undermined 

Overall, Orban’s expanded presence in the Balkans has bolstered Hungary's influence, and his friendships with Vucic and Dodik has positioned him as a mediator between Brussels and the Balkan leaders. However, while Orban advocated for Balkan enlargement, his alignment with Vucic and Dodik complicated EU strategy, bypassing democratic principles, undermining EU values, and posing a security risk amid regional instability. 

Ultimately, the illiberal alliance between Budapest, Belgrade and Banja Luka has challenged EU policies, weakened democratic values, and threatened regional stability, affecting EU's geopolitical landscape, according to the report.

“The regimes in Budapest, Belgrade and Banja Luka share their rejection of liberal values, which are intrinsic to the EU’s identity,” says the report. 

“Viktor Orban has endorsed and inspired the authoritarian behaviour of Balkan leaders,” it adds. “He has stepped in to support Milorad Dodik politically and financially on several occasions when the Serb leader escalated his secessionist threats. As such, he validated these irredentist decisions, blocking any attempt by the EU to punish them.” 

For example, Hungary took over several infrastructure projects in Republika Srpska, which had been left incomplete by Germany due to Dodik's destabilising actions. Similarly, in 2021, when Dodik declared intentions to withdraw Republika Srpska from state-level military, judicial and tax frameworks, Orban pledged €100mn in financial aid to the Serb-majority region and vocally opposed any imposition of EU sanctions.

Threat to stability 

“Orban usually refers to Serb leaders as key figures for stability in the Balkans. Maintaining regional stability has also been Orban’s public argument to justify his opposition to sanctions against Serbia and Republika Srpska, claiming that they could lead to an escalation of regional tensions,” says the report. "However, paradoxically, by armouring Dodik’s secessionist moves that threaten Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territorial integrity, Orban has contributed to creating the biggest political crisis in the country since the end of the war in 1995.” 

Moreover, says the report, “In the current geopolitical context, the existence of autocratic regimes in the Balkans and within the EU compromises the stability and security of the whole continent. It also undermines the Union’s support

for Ukraine in its fight against Russia as the war continues, given the close links between these leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin. After all, Viktor Orban has threatened to block EU’s support for Ukraine on several occasions.” 

All three leaders have maintained relations with Russia at a time when most of Europe has decisively broken with Moscow after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Orban is the only EU leader who hasn't severed relations with Putin since the 2022 Ukrainian invasion.

The proliferation of illiberal regimes and autocratic leaders within Europe and its immediate vicinity poses a formidable challenge to the EU's democratic ethos and geopolitical strategy. López Domènech argues that democracy must be reaffirmed as the cornerstone of the EU's identity.

As tensions persist on Europe's periphery, safeguarding the rule of law in member states and enlargement countries emerges not only as a moral imperative but also as a strategic necessity for the EU, she concludes.

Moving forward, the paper stresses the need for a paradigm shift in the EU's approach towards the Western Balkans. Democracy must be placed at the forefront of the enlargement process, with a renewed emphasis on democratic values and institutions. This entails a more robust response to democratic backsliding and a greater commitment to empowering reform-oriented forces within candidate countries.