As Israel’s ceasefire with Hezbollah takes effect and the war with Hamas in Gaza continues to rage, it appeared as if the news spotlight was shifting away from the Jewish state as the fall of the Assad regime in Syria took centre stage. This was a short-lived change, however, with the Benjamin Netanyahu administration also embroiled in the Syrian conflict by his own choice.

On December 5, as Syrian opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) captured the strategic city of Hama, Israel launched airstrikes along the Lebanese border. On December 8, amid the rapid disintegration of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) saw a need to bolster its security forces station near Syria as the conflict escalated to new heights.

The IDF has announced plans to deploy additional troops for defensive operations in the Golan Heights as Syria's military unexpectedly withdraws from key positions along the Israel-Syria border. This comes after the Syrian army began retreating from the Quneitra province bordering Israel, allowing the rebel forces to take charge.

By December 10, Israeli troops are less than 15km away from the Syria capital city of Damascus, with the potential to even reach the capital by the end of the day despite protests by the UN and other regional leaders. 

It was at this stage that the IDF signalled its intentions, announcing that it would only withdraw from its newly established buffer zone once Syria's situation became more stable. Still, the question remains: when exactly would the situation become more stable and under what conditions would Israel consider Syria to be stable enough in order to begin the withdrawal of the IDF?

After all, Israel has a history of holding what is considered enemy territory amid regional conflicts. At the conclusion of the Six-Day War in 1967, Israel held the entire Sinai Peninsular after pushing back Egyptian forces. Still, Israel returned the Sinai to Egyptian hands after a ceasefire came into effect.

Still, not all territories that Israel conquered during that war were returned to their previous administrators. The Golan Heights of southern Syria remain in Israeli hands to this day, with Israel annexing the part of the territory that it held in December 1981.

Given the IDF’s presence in the Golan Heights at this time, many may be wondering whether the military’s objective really is to retain a buffer zone until such time as the regional volatility subsides or whether there may be an opportune land grab at play.

To understand what Israel’s plan of action may be, it’s worth drawing parallels between the situation in Syria and how the IDF recently operated in Lebanon against Hezbollah.

While Israel and Hezbollah had been exchanging rocket fire since the outbreak of war on October 7, 2023, Israel decided to engage in ground operations against the Islamic militia. This included the establishment of a security zone near the Israel-Lebanon border and a ground incursion into southern Lebanon in which the IDF issued an evacuation warning to residents of 20 villages in southern Lebanon following a night of airstrikes.

On November 27, Israel’s ground incursion into Lebanon came to a halt. The previous evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed his country, confirming that he would be putting the proposed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal to a vote in his Cabinet.

The proposal required Israeli troops to withdraw from southern Lebanon while the Lebanese army would deploy approximately 5,000 troops to the region.

Although there had been several violations of the agreement after it came into effect, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken maintained that the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon remains steady, as the monitoring mechanism prescribed continued to operate as planned.

While the Greater Golan Heights remains in doubt following Assad's fall, the ongoing encroachment, despite denials by the IDF and government, appear to have one trajectory, and that is to cut off the Syrians from the southwest of the country and the home of Ahmad Al-Sharaa (Al-Jolani).

Based on what has occurred in Lebanon, it appears as if Israel’s recent actions in Syria are a form of defensive buffer and nothing more. It also makes little practical sense for Israel to venture deeper into Syria, given the resources being spread between the ongoing Gaza war and the monitoring of the Lebanon situation.