Polish retail sales expanded 6.1% year on year at constant prices in February (chart), after growing 3% y/y the preceding month, the statistics office GUS said on March 21.

The reading came in at clearly above the consensus line, which projected an expansion of 4.6% y/y. The positive surprise might have been helped by the positive calendar effect of a leap February but the main driver was the growth in real wages, analysts say.

“The increase in [real] wages guarantees a solid acceleration in consumption, even if accompanied by an increase in savings,” PKO BP said in a comment.

Consumption is expected to drive Polish economic growth in 2024 to 3%-4% after an expansion of just 0.2% last year.

Six out of eight main retail segments managed an annual expansion in February, GUS showed in the breakdown of the data.

Sales of cars and car parts grew 26.6% y/y in the second month, compared to a gain of 22% y/y in January. Fuel sales added 13.4% y/y (+13.1% y/y the preceding month). 

Sales of food, drinks and tobacco products grew 1.3% y/y in February after a reduction of 0.6% y/y in January. 

In the pharmaceuticals and cosmetics segment, turnover grew 6.9% y/y in February after an expansion of 3.8% y/y the preceding month.

Sales of textiles, clothing and footwear retreated 21.5% y/y in February, following a slide of 24.7% y/y the preceding month.

Sales of furniture, audio and video equipment and domestic appliances slid 5.2% y/y in February after falling 16.8% y/y in January.

Sales declined 0.9% m/m at constant prices in February after the January fall of 19.5% m/m, GUS data also showed.

In current prices, retail turnover expanded 6.7% y/y in February, easing 2.1pp in comparison to the January reading. In m/m terms there was a fall of 0.8% (-19.7% m/m the preceding month).

Retail turnover grew 2.9% m/m in February following seasonal adjustment, versus a gain of 0.4% m/m in January.