Belarus Country Report Nov17 - November, 2017

November 3, 2017

The Belarusian economy is doing a lot better this year than anyone thought it would do at the start of this year - largely thanks to Russia’s economic recovery.

The IMF  revised its forecast for Belarus' GDP this year upwards to a 0.7% year-on-year growth vs the earlier expectation of a contraction of 0.8% y/y (April's forecast of the Fund), according to the multinational lender's World Economic Outlook published on October 13.

According to official data, the GDP of Belarus increased by 1.6% y/y in January-August. Belarus' GDP contracted 3.9% y/y in 2015 after 1.6% y/y growth in 2014. Belarus has been badly hit by the crisis from sanctions and low oil prices affecting its traditional market of Russia.

Trade with Russia is driving the growth. Oil trade, halted by a row earlier this year, has been resumed.

The exports of the Belarusian mechanical engineering products to Russia have jumped more than 50% in January-September, Alexander Ogorodnikov, Belarusian Deputy Industry Minister, told journalists on October 13. Ogorodnikov added that in January-September, the exports of Belarusian mechanical engineering grew by 25%, without given more details of the absolute terms of the exports.

The foreign exchange reserves of Belarus are also in good shape, up by $273mn or 3.9% month-on-month to $7.267bn in September, following a 4.9% m/m growth in August and  a 25.2% m/m jump in June, the National Bank of Belarus (NBB) said in a statement on October 6.

And maybe most importantly, the growth in FDI within the Eurasia Economic Union (EEU) has begun to take off including within the wider Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) plus Georgia area, but at a much faster pace; total mutual FDI stock within the wider region was up by a more modest 7.9% to $45.1bn.

Russia remains responsible for the lion’s share of outward FDI investment; indeed it is the only EEU member that is a net exporter of FDI to other countries in the bloc.


To Purchase This Report - Click Here

Related Reports

Iran Country Report Nov19 - November, 2019

Iran on November 4 announced a 10-fold increase in its enriched uranium production. The move, declared on the 40th anniversary of the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran which sparked the Iran ... more

Turkey Country Report Nov19 - November, 2019

Erdogan’s Syria attraction has ended. He invaded some parts of Syria and he is talking about building some cities there for Syrian immigrants although that sounds like a dream. His latest military ... more

Ukraine Country Report Nov19 - November, 2019

Ukraine’s economy is coming on very nicely. Growth is still sub-par but the economy is growing at about 3% andits still early days as the government is only two months into the job. But before ... more

Dismiss