This report covers the market developments in FY 2014 and the data available as of April 2015.

The Polish retail market maintained overall positive performance in 2014, when the market value increased by approximately 2% y/y, propped by the expansion of the leading chains across the country and stable demand for basic grocery products.
Nonetheless, the sector did not remain resilient to deterrents, as approximately 20% of the 200 largest retail chains recorded loss in 2014, according to market data. Deflation impacted the already undergoing price war among the players, the most affected being larger format operators. In addition to this, the accelerated expansion of e-commerce continued to eat into the market share of conventional stores.

The retail market is forecasted to continue op upward path in the following years. According to our QuERI database reports, consumer real market demand started recovering in 2013, when it inched up by 2.2% y/y (in USD terms), after the 8.3% y/y decline in 2012 and further increased by 5.3% y/y in 2014. Consumer demand is forecasted to continue rising in the coming years, to reach $11.9bn in 2015 and $13.5bn in 2017.

Key points:
• Retail sector maintains positive y/y performance in 2014
• Retail prices expected to continue declining by mid-year
• Online grocery sales rise at double-digit y/y pace in 2014
• Clothing, footwear sales value increases moderately y/y in value terms in 2014
• Cosmetics chains continue expanding, market approaching saturation
• Biedronka tempers expansion in Q4/2014
• Zabka to further expand chain, mulls entering distribution of prepaid energy cards
• CCC to continue chain enlargement, plans opening online shop in mid-2015