The second round of Romania’s presidential elections will take place on December 8 amid intense speculation related to the manipulation of public opinion by Russia in favour of independent, far-right candidate Calin Georgescu. 

Georgescu will face reformist candidate Elena Lasconi in the second round of the election, despite ongoing investigations into potential criminal actions to influence the election. 

Georgescu is suspected of receiving large amounts of funding from Russia with the aim of encouraging pre-existent radical movements in Romania. Investigations released by the Romanian presidency earlier this week indicated as much as €50mn could have been spent to support his presidential campaign, in particular by boosting his profile on TikTok. 

Nationalist rhetoric 

Georgescu is known for his extreme nationalist rhetoric, broadcast via TikTok and other social media channels, and lauding of the leaders of the fascist Iron Guard, a movement allied to the Nazis and responsible for numerous atrocities during World War II.

He has also questioned Romania’s Nato membership, and recently said that if elected he will ban Ukrainian grain exports via Romania. 

Previously, the candidate was trailing better known politicians in the polls, but he unexpectedly took the lead in the first round of the presidential election, beating candidates including Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu. 

The option of calling off the elections and starting from square one has not yet been mentioned by the authorities in Bucharest, but it remains a valid option. Consultations with the country’s development partners, primarily the US and European Union, are believed to have already taken place. 

If Romanians vote to elect Georgescu president on December 8, and the vote is later cancelled, there is a high risk of provocations organised by entities backed by Russia on the streets of Romania. 

Investigations begin 

The Prosecutor's Office at the High Court (ICCJ) has ordered an investigation based on indications that reveal possible electoral crimes and money laundering, according to its press release. 

It also asked the Chief Prosecutor of Directorate for Investigating Organized Crime and Terrorism (DIICOT) conduct its own analysis of the information.

“The investigations target indications regarding electoral crimes that would have influenced the voting process, through methods such as corrupting voters, including in the online environment, with the aim of determining them to vote for a certain candidate,” said the Prosecutor’s Office press release. 

The investigation also targets money laundering crimes in connection with possible illegalities related to the origin and use of sums of money used for the illegal financing of a candidate's electoral campaign by his supporters.

Russian involvement highly likely 

The messages sent from Washington and Brussels confirm the possibility of a Russian involvement in the electoral process as highly likely. The State Department said that data regarding Russian involvement in malign cyber activity designed to influence the integrity of the Romanian electoral process should be  fully investigated “to ensure the integrity of Romania’s electoral process”. 

The European Commission asked TikTok to keep for further investigations all the data relevant to the alleged illegal campaign carried out by Georgescu.