Support for Serbia’s accession to the European Union is growing, but emotional and historical ties continue to bind the nation closely to Russia and China, according to a new survey by IPSOS, Blic reported on December 3.

Srdjan Bogosavljevic, a consultant at IPSOS, revealed that if a referendum on EU membership were held today, 46% of Serbians would vote in favour, while 30% would oppose it. “This difference is one of the largest in recent years,” he said, indicating growing support for the EU.

The shift in favour of EU membership appears largely pragmatic. “Most of those in favour are motivated by better opportunities for future generations,” he explained, adding that many citizens do not see immediate personal benefits, given that the path to membership still seems a long way ahead.

Bogosavljevic noted that public sentiment often fluctuates based on how the EU interacts with Serbia. He highlighted instances such as European support for Serbia during the migrant crisis and floods, which temporarily bolstered positive attitudes, contrasting it to the bloc's vaccine nationalism during the pandemic, when it lost some of its credibility.

While the EU garners pragmatic support among Serbs, Russia and China enjoy far warmer emotional connections. Many Serbians hold favourable views of the two nations, often tied to historical alliances or tangible aid.

“The visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin or China’s vaccine donations during the pandemic significantly boosted their popularity,” said Bogosavljevic. He added that economic cooperation and infrastructure projects have made China particularly popular among supporters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), while the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) and nationalist groups maintain closer alignment with Russia.

“This division reflects pragmatism but also a strong emotional connection to traditional allies,” he said.

The survey also revealed changing public concerns. “Unemployment, once a dominant issue, has almost disappeared from the list,” Bogosavljevic said. However, Kosovo remains a top priority, followed by corruption and, increasingly, protests.

In November, protests emerged among the top three problems, with 10% of citizens viewing them as a key challenge. Unsurprisingly, views split along political lines. Opposition supporters tend to focus on government corruption, while pro-government voters criticise the protests. 

Despite these concerns, Serbians generally remain optimistic about their personal economic outlook. According to the survey, 37% of citizens expect improvement over the next year, compared to 23% who anticipate deterioration.

“Citizens do not exhibit significant fear of economic problems, indicating a period of relative stability,” Bogosavljevic said.

Optimism about the future tends not to translate into a desire for political change. “Most people do not see the need for significant changes, stemming from a sense of security and trust in the current government,” he said.

So, while recurrent protests may show deep discontentment with the government among certain sections of the electorate, they are unlikely to lead to serious political upheaval, given that a majority is content with the status quo.

President Aleksandar Vucic continues to enjoy strong support, while opposition parties struggle with low credibility and a lack of coordinated strategy. “When people believe the country is on the right track, the opposition has little room for success,” Bogosavljevic concluded.