The foreign investor-held share of the market value of stocks on the Borsa Istanbul fell below the 45% level on March 10. It stood at 44.93% on March 12.

The figure was in the 70%s in 2007-2008 and hovered in the 60%s until as recently as the beginning of 2020, at which point the Turkish government decided to make life difficult for foreign players on the local stock market as it sought to use unorthodox means to quell Turkey's economic turbulence.

The foreign-held share of Borsa Istanbul stocks based on market value (%).

It was in July 2020 that the figure fell below the 50% threshold.

The figure based on the number of shares held is also not too encouraging. In September, on that measure, foreign investors owned around 28% of the market.

Foreign-held share of Borsa Istanbul market based on the number of shares (%).

Following the Erdogan administration's shake-up of Turkey's economic management in early November, the figure climbed towards 31% until mid-January.

Since mid-January, it has once more been subject to a trend of decline. It fell below the 30%-level in mid-February and since then it has been in the 29%s.

Back in 2007, this figure was in the 59%s. It fell below 50% in 2011. And it has been below 40% since November 2019. August 2020 brought the descent below 30%.

Foreign-held share of Borsa Istanbul market based on the number of shares (%).

Between January 15 and March 5, foreigners sold a net $1.1bn worth of Borsa Istanbul equities.

On the global front, the market stress has not dissolved. On March 17, the Fed will release the results of its monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting.

US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package is now in effect but it was already priced in. Biden is presently getting ready to hike taxes, which will add to the pressure on markets.

The discourse suggesting that upcoming rising inflation will be temporary and that the money printing will continue is still in place.

Under observation is when the stress between the policymakers and the markets will settle down ahead of a positive mode taking over.

On March 18, at 14:00 local time, the Turkish central bank will release its latest rates decision. Currently, the markets are anticipating a hike of around 100 bp. Estimating what impact the rate-setters' decision will have on the Turkish lira is a formidable task in the current volatile market conditions.