Turkey's official inflation weakens for first time in year and a half, dips to 84%

Turkey's official inflation weakens for first time in year and a half, dips to 84%
/ bne IntelliNews
By Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 5, 2022

Turkey’s official consumer price index (CPIinflation on November 3 ended a 17-month-long run of rises, dipping to 84% y/y in November, following the 86% announced for October, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat) said on November 3 (chart).

The October figure was the highest headline inflation rate recorded by Turkey since the 91% posted in June 1998.

At 84%, Turkey falls behind Argentina in the world inflation league. Argentina announced 88% for October. Turkey is now in seventh place in the ranking.

The Istanbul-based ENAG inflation research group, meanwhile, released a November inflation figure of 171% y/y, down from the 185% y/y it calculated for October. Polls have shown Turks generally don’t trust the official inflation data.

TUIK also gave an official figure of 136% y/y for producer price index (PPI) inflation in November, down from 158% in October. The October figure was a record.

On October 27, the central bank hiked its expectation for end-2022 official inflation to 65% (upper boundary: 68%) from the previous figure of 60% (upper boundary: 64%) given in the July inflation report.

The authority said it expected inflation to peak at below the 90%-level in November and to sharply fall in December due to the base effect that would be caused by the high inflation figure (14% m/m) reported for December 2021.

The guidance was based on the assumption that the Turkish lira (TRY) will not experience another crash. As of the afternoon of December 5, the USD/TRY was up 0.2% to 18.64 from 18.6 on October 27.

If the USD/TRY remains stable, Turkey’s official inflation figures look set to decline to the 30-40%s across 2023.

On November 24, the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) cut its policy rate by another 150 bp to 9%.

The policy rate was now adequate and the rate-cutting cycle that started in August, bringing 500 bp of cuts in all, was at an end, the authority also said.

The turbulence-free mood on global markets continues. Turkey’s five-year credit default swaps (CDS) remain below the 600-level, while the yield on the Turkish government’s 10-year eurobonds remains below the 10% level.

Data

SELECT `n`.`nid` AS `id`, `n`.`title`, 'bne IntelliNews' AS authors, 'bne IntelliNews' AS bylines, `wc`.`field_website_callout_value` AS `summary`, `smc`.`field_social_media_callout_value` AS `social`, `pd`.`published_at` AS `date`, `p`.`field_publication__tid` AS `publication_id`, `fm`.`uri` AS `image`, `fspcaption`.`field_story_photo_caption_value` AS `image_credit`, `fspcredit`.`field_story_photo_credit_value` AS `image_author`, `ws`.`field_website_sections_tid` AS `section_id`, `fdfs`.`field_subject_tid` AS `subject_id`, `db`.`body_value` AS `body`, `fm2`.`uri` AS `pdf`, `et`.`field_enable_tracking_value` AS `tracking`, `ht`.`field_head_tags_value` AS `headTags`, `bt`.`field_body_tags_value` AS `bodyTags` FROM `node` AS `n` LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_website_callout` AS `wc` ON wc.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_social_media_callout` AS `smc` ON smc.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `publication_date` AS `pd` ON pd.nid = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_publication_` AS `p` ON p.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_story_picture` AS `sp` ON sp.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `file_managed` AS `fm` ON fm.fid = sp.field_story_picture_fid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_story_photo_caption` AS `fspcaption` ON fspcaption.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_story_photo_credit` AS `fspcredit` ON fspcredit.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `workflow_node` AS `wn` ON wn.nid = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_website_sections` AS `ws` ON ws.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_subject` AS `fdfs` ON fdfs.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_body` AS `db` ON db.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_file` AS `ff` ON ff.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `file_managed` AS `fm2` ON fm2.fid = ff.field_file_fid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_enable_tracking` AS `et` ON et.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_head_tags` AS `ht` ON ht.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_body_tags` AS `bt` ON bt.entity_id = n.nid WHERE (n.status = 1) AND (n.type = 'article') AND (n.nid = 264328) AND (wn.sid= 3) AND (p.field_publication__tid = '1001') LIMIT 1
Dismiss