On January 4, newly inaugurated US President Donald J. Trump caused waves during his joint press conference alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While the US leader expressed an array of outspoken views, perhaps one that stood out, given his previous utterances, was his plan to relocate Gazan residents out of the Gaza Strip.

“Look, the Gaza thing has not worked. It's never worked. And I feel very differently about Gaza than a lot of people. I think they should get a good, fresh, beautiful piece of land, and we get some people to put up the money to build it and make it nice and make it habitable and enjoyable,” Trump stated.

He explained his plan to resettle the 1.8mn Palestinians in Gaza in Egypt and Jordan, adding that he expects that both governments “won’t tell him no.” Contrary to Trump’s claims, both countries’ governments oppose this bold plan.

In response to the US president’s initial resettlement calls, before he met with Netanyahu, the Arab League met in Cairo on February 3 to deliberate their response. Representatives from Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE unilaterally rejected the notion.

While Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi previously stated that “Transferring Palestinians from Gaza is absolutely unacceptable and will never be allowed,” the Egyptian government was notably muted on the topic at the Arab League meeting, confirming that Sisi spoke with Trump on the matter without elaborating further.

In contrast, Jordan remained defiant on their stance, with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi voicing his country’s “firm and unwavering” opposition to Trump’s plan.

Still, does Jordan have the authority to stop the US government’s resettlement plan in its tracks?

Given the ongoing dismantling of USAID, one might be inclined to believe that the Trump administration may lose financial leverage over nations such as Jordan. According to fundsforNGOs, USAID was intended to inject $24.5mn into Jordan over a five-year period, aimed at boosting the country’s health sector in the pursuit of universal health coverage.

As per a fact sheet published by USAID, the organisation pumped $36mn into Jordan’s tourism sector over a five-year period through its Building Economic Sustainability through Tourism (BEST) project.

Of course, cutting such funding does not necessarily mean that Trump will not agree to provide other measures of financial support to Jordan for its cooperation. After all, The Art of the Deal co-author notably built his career around his negotiation expertise.

You also have to understand that funding may not be the only leverage that the US can wave over the heads of the Jordanian government.

Since the late 1960s, the US has provided Jordan with military assistance, most recently updating their partnership with the 2021 Defence Cooperation Agreement. The US Department of State confirmed that the US has provided Jordan $2.155bn in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) since 2015, while funding the Jordanian Armed Forces (JAF) directly with $327mn since 2018.

Equally important to Jordan’s security stability is US support for the Jordan Border Security Programme, which entails border surveillance as well as a breach detection and interdiction system that covers the country’s roughly 563km border. The US Department of State revealed that the Americans have injected $234mn into this initiative since 2009.

With the unrest of the Syrian conflict to its north and the constant violence erupting across the West Bank to its west, border security and a competent military are essential for the Jordanians, with the US playing a pivotal part in fulfilling this need.

Although Trump’s plan to resettle Gaza residents may appear irrational at face value, Jordan may have very little say over whether or not to accept resettled Palestinians. Ultimately, the US holds a major influence over Israel’s neighbour across multiple facets.