This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from April 4 until May 5, 2014 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.
In May, Bosnia’s central electoral commission is expected to officially call the general and presidential elections in the country for October 12, 2014, local media reported.
Yet, the EU has threatened it would not recognise the results of the 2014 general elections if the country does not bring its constitution in line the Sejdic-Finci ruling. The latter calls for a constitutional change to allow minorities to run for high-level office since the current Bosnian constitution implies that only ethnics Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats (the so-called three constituent peoples) have the right to be elected as members of Bosnia’s presidency and parliament.
On the economic front, the IMF said in April it expects Bosnia's economy to grow by 2.0% in 2014, keeping its estimates unchanged from a previous forecast made in January. However, the Fund cut its 2015 growth outlook to 3.2% from 3.5% expected earlier. Growth is seen strengthening to 4.0% in 2019, the Fund also said.
According to the statistics office, Bosnia’s GDP expanded a real 2.1% y/y in 2013, swinging from a 1.2% contraction in 2012, thanks to higher agriculture, manufacturing and utilities sector’ output.
The CPI fell 1.6% y/y in March, the same as the month before, dragged down by falling food, transport, clothing and footwear and furnishings costs.
The PPI on the domestic market edged down 0.6% y/y in March, improving from a 1.8% y/y contraction in February, due to softer decline of manufacturing charges.
The Q1 foreign trade deficit rose 4.7% y/y to EUR 802.6mn. The January-March export coverage ratio improved slightly to 56.7% from 56.4% a year ago.
Bosnia’s credit growth should reach 4.0% y/y in 2014 thanks to a mild recovery of consumption and investments, the government’s Directorate for Economic Planning (DEP) said in its latest 2014-2017 report.
The country could lure between EUR 1.7bn-1.9bn worth of foreign direct investments over the 2014-2017 period due to the implementation of several key energy projects, the DEP also said.