This report covers the key macroeconomic, financial and political releases for Bulgaria for the period since January 15, 2016.

In the winter edition of its European Economic Forecast, the European Commission (EC) kept its projection for 2016 GDP growth in Bulgaria at 1.5%, unchanged from November.

Real GDP growth accelerated to 3.1% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2015 from 2.9% y/y in the previous three months, a seasonally-adjusted statistics office flash estimate showed on February 12.

The consumer confidence indicator rose to -28.7 in the three months to January, its highest level since April 2007.

Bulgaria's business confidence strengthened in January, with the combined business climate indicator rising 0.6 points after a 0.7 point decline in December. The industrial production growth decelerated to 1.6% y/y in December from 2.3% y/y in November. The construction output increased by 0.7% y/y in December, reversing a 0.5% y/y drop in November. The retail sales (at constant prices) increased by 2.7% y/y in December, accelerating from a 2% y/y rise in November.


Key points:
• The CPI was unchanged y/y in January, after dropping 0.4% y/y in December
• Bulgaria reported a consolidated budget surplus of BGN952mn (€486.7mn) in January, equal to some 1.1% of projected GDP, preliminary data from the finance ministry showed
• The current account surplus declined 7% y/y to €789.5mn in January-November